3 ms·

I think whats going on here are people are fatigued with covid related news and in the news in general. News publications are terrified and putting out these sc

I think whats going on here are people are fatigued with covid related news and in the news in general. News publications are terrified and putting out these scaremongering stories to get people hooked again. Just like the 1917/1918 swine flu didn't last for "generations"(meaning the potency of the virus was extremely deadly) this covid virus will do the same. It will def. be around but not in the same potency as when it entered the world stage late 2019.

f6v 5y ago
The last thing we should do is to be laid back about this or next viruses. If we don’t use the momentum to reduce vaccine rollout times among other things - we failed.
- nomel 5y ago
  > If we don’t use the momentum to reduce vaccine rollout times among other things - we failed. I don't think we can use the luck we had with this vaccine to justify risky releases in the future.
  - f6v 5y ago
    The 5-10 year drug development cycle isn’t something that should stay that way forever. It’s incredibly slow and we should change that.
    - Throwawayaerlei 5y ago
      If it's anything like the normal vaccine development cycle, most of that time is consumed by things like writing grant proposals, waiting for grants, convincing a drug company and/or their convincing themselves it's worth taking the risk to try our your drug candidate, etc. COVID-19 vaccine development in the US and U.K. shows what you can do when people are willing to take huge gambles on a candidate ever working out, including starting mass production before Phase III trials produce strong evidence. The US Operation Warp Speed https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Warp_Speed https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Warp_Speed made a huge bet on Sanofi/GSK's vaccine, which in its first trial did not produce sufficient immunity in elderly, the second set of trials that started earlier this year are very promising so far. Ditto AZ/Oxford which has not applied for an Emergency Use Authorization. Novavax's vaccine also looks very good, but they are getting severely delayed in making an application because supplies for cell culture manufacturing are first going to the Serum Institute of India and AZ for Oxford's vaccine and Janssen, and there are some supplies common with the mRNA vaccines. Trained workers are also in short supply. Operation Warp Speed is a fantastic success in using the style of the Manhattan Project including paying Pfizer in advance for 100 million doses of BioNTech's vaccine, but so far only 2 of its 5 huge billion dollar plus upfront bets have paid off. Outside of an emergency that would be considered an unacceptable waste of money.
    - nomel 5y ago
      > It’s incredibly slow and we should change that. It's slow because drugs aren't remotely understood, in the grand scheme of things, and not all side effects are immediate. If you stay up and watch late night TV, you'll see at least a couple "Were you affected by <recalled drug>? Our lawyers are here to help" ads. My mom, for example, has permanent heart damage from a recalled drug. We can shorten development cycles when biology is understood. Currently, it's not. Your doctor will happily tell you "They don't know exactly why this works, but they believe..." if you ask them about any drug. Risk vs reward aside, vaccines may have a much smaller problem space, but they're still not completely understood, evident by clots from the J&J and AstraZeneca vaccines [1], the link with heart inflammation [2], and the deaths from both. 1. https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-vaccine-related-blood-clots-linked-to-amino-acids-in-new-study-11625648400 https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-vaccine-related-blood-... 2. https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57781637 https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57781637

f6v 5y ago

The last thing we should do is to be laid back about this or next viruses. If we don’t use the momentum to reduce vaccine rollout times among other things - we failed.

nomel 5y ago
> If we don’t use the momentum to reduce vaccine rollout times among other things - we failed. I don't think we can use the luck we had with this vaccine to justify risky releases in the future.
- f6v 5y ago
  The 5-10 year drug development cycle isn’t something that should stay that way forever. It’s incredibly slow and we should change that.
  - Throwawayaerlei 5y ago
    If it's anything like the normal vaccine development cycle, most of that time is consumed by things like writing grant proposals, waiting for grants, convincing a drug company and/or their convincing themselves it's worth taking the risk to try our your drug candidate, etc. COVID-19 vaccine development in the US and U.K. shows what you can do when people are willing to take huge gambles on a candidate ever working out, including starting mass production before Phase III trials produce strong evidence. The US Operation Warp Speed https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Warp_Speed https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Warp_Speed made a huge bet on Sanofi/GSK's vaccine, which in its first trial did not produce sufficient immunity in elderly, the second set of trials that started earlier this year are very promising so far. Ditto AZ/Oxford which has not applied for an Emergency Use Authorization. Novavax's vaccine also looks very good, but they are getting severely delayed in making an application because supplies for cell culture manufacturing are first going to the Serum Institute of India and AZ for Oxford's vaccine and Janssen, and there are some supplies common with the mRNA vaccines. Trained workers are also in short supply. Operation Warp Speed is a fantastic success in using the style of the Manhattan Project including paying Pfizer in advance for 100 million doses of BioNTech's vaccine, but so far only 2 of its 5 huge billion dollar plus upfront bets have paid off. Outside of an emergency that would be considered an unacceptable waste of money.
  - nomel 5y ago
    > It’s incredibly slow and we should change that. It's slow because drugs aren't remotely understood, in the grand scheme of things, and not all side effects are immediate. If you stay up and watch late night TV, you'll see at least a couple "Were you affected by <recalled drug>? Our lawyers are here to help" ads. My mom, for example, has permanent heart damage from a recalled drug. We can shorten development cycles when biology is understood. Currently, it's not. Your doctor will happily tell you "They don't know exactly why this works, but they believe..." if you ask them about any drug. Risk vs reward aside, vaccines may have a much smaller problem space, but they're still not completely understood, evident by clots from the J&J and AstraZeneca vaccines [1], the link with heart inflammation [2], and the deaths from both. 1. https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-vaccine-related-blood-clots-linked-to-amino-acids-in-new-study-11625648400 https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-vaccine-related-blood-... 2. https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57781637 https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57781637