3 ms·

My research says this claim is false. The mortality rate for COVID-19 for all age groups is much higher that mortality rates for drivers. How I compared the ri

My research says this claim is false. The mortality rate for COVID-19 for all age groups is much higher that mortality rates for drivers. How I compared the risks: In New York the mortality rate for COVID-19 for all age groups over 18 was found to be at least 0.2%[1]. The CDC[2] reports 18-29 years at 0.5%, 30-39 at 1.4%, 40-49 at 3.5%, 50-64 at 16.4%. There were 36,560[3] motor vehicle related deaths in 2018 in the US. With 273,602,100[4] cars on the road one could make a rough estimate of mortality of 0.013%. This number is conservatively high since it does not include passengers. [1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se... [2] https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e1.htm#T1_down https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e1.htm#T1_down [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in... [4] https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicle...

AndrewBissell 5y ago
Several problems with this analysis: - Using confirmed cases as the denominator significantly overstates the fatality rate, because a large share of the total infections is never confirmed - "All age groups over 18" elides huge disparities between the younger and older age groups. It also obscures large differences in risk between those with comorbidities vs those without. The CDC does not make this easy to parse out, but in Canada after their first wave, "100% of the COVID-involved deaths under the age of 45 as of July 31 had at least one other disease or condition certified on the medical certificate of death." https://web.archive.org/web/20210219195135if_/https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/45-28-0001/2020001/article/00087-eng.htm https://web.archive.org/web/20210219195135if_/https://www150... - New York as a region had one of the highest fatality rates of the entire pandemic - Covid is a "one-and-done" risk as far as we know, while the risk of a car accident is repeated year after year for as long as one drives on the roads. Even in the absence of vaccines, the risk of death from Covid is unlikely to remain as high in 2024 as it was in 2020. The most sound way to run this sort of comparison is something like "how many in risk group X (say, people aged 30-39 with no comorbidities) died in 2020 from Covid vs how many in that group die in a typical year from auto accidents?" If you want to say that overweight 60 year old teachers with diabetes should not have been forced back to in-person instruction you'll get no argument from me.
- intrepidhero 5y ago
  If you feel a different form of analysis would change the outcome please feel free to provide us with the data and your conclusions. I took it as far as I felt I needed to. When I saw that the risk due to COVID to even a young and generally more healthy demographic was still an order of magnitude bigger I didn't feel I needed to dig further. Car accidents are already a big enough source of risk that I personally take measures to reduce it and support societal interventions to reduce it further. COVID is much worse.
  - AndrewBissell 5y ago
    > When I saw that the risk due to COVID to even a young and generally more healthy demographic was still an order of magnitude bigger You didn't see that though, you just goofed the numbers. Confusing CFR with IFR (and comparing that with absolute risk from car accidents) is just way off base.

AndrewBissell 5y ago

Several problems with this analysis: - Using confirmed cases as the denominator significantly overstates the fatality rate, because a large share of the total infections is never confirmed - "All age groups over 18" elides huge disparities between the younger and older age groups. It also obscures large differences in risk between those with comorbidities vs those without. The CDC does not make this easy to parse out, but in Canada after their first wave, "100% of the COVID-involved deaths under the age of 45 as of July 31 had at least one other disease or condition certified on the medical certificate of death." https://web.archive.org/web/20210219195135if_/https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/45-28-0001/2020001/article/00087-eng.htm https://web.archive.org/web/20210219195135if_/https://www150... - New York as a region had one of the highest fatality rates of the entire pandemic - Covid is a "one-and-done" risk as far as we know, while the risk of a car accident is repeated year after year for as long as one drives on the roads. Even in the absence of vaccines, the risk of death from Covid is unlikely to remain as high in 2024 as it was in 2020. The most sound way to run this sort of comparison is something like "how many in risk group X (say, people aged 30-39 with no comorbidities) died in 2020 from Covid vs how many in that group die in a typical year from auto accidents?" If you want to say that overweight 60 year old teachers with diabetes should not have been forced back to in-person instruction you'll get no argument from me.

intrepidhero 5y ago
If you feel a different form of analysis would change the outcome please feel free to provide us with the data and your conclusions. I took it as far as I felt I needed to. When I saw that the risk due to COVID to even a young and generally more healthy demographic was still an order of magnitude bigger I didn't feel I needed to dig further. Car accidents are already a big enough source of risk that I personally take measures to reduce it and support societal interventions to reduce it further. COVID is much worse.
- AndrewBissell 5y ago
  > When I saw that the risk due to COVID to even a young and generally more healthy demographic was still an order of magnitude bigger You didn't see that though, you just goofed the numbers. Confusing CFR with IFR (and comparing that with absolute risk from car accidents) is just way off base.