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I think you have to ask whether Tesla would have the same or similar valuation in any of the following circumstances: - If literally anyone else were CEO. - I

I think you have to ask whether Tesla would have the same or similar valuation in any of the following circumstances: - If literally anyone else were CEO. - If Musk hadn’t used twitter to gather a cult-like following of people who idolize him, think the tech is cool, and can’t afford a Tesla but can afford a few shares of the stock. - If Musk hadn’t repeatedly inserted himself into the WSB “meme stock” & crypto counter-culture to cultivate fans within that group of risk-taking investors who are known for ignoring fundamentals and buying stock on their intuition (or even the internet’s intuition!) alone. I’m not saying Tesla is worthless and I even have to give Musk credit for creating an internet persona where he’s helping middle class millennials “stick it to the man” while _being_ the billionaire man. But IMO its very obvious that at least some substantial portion of Tesla’s valuation comes from Musk and his internet antics/persona and is completely detached from the underlying value of Tesla itself.

toomuchtodo 5y ago
You’re not entirely wrong, but Tesla (and a small SpaceX investment via funds) is the closest most people can come to investing in Musk personally. Wouldn’t you invest in someone who is obsessed and will strive at all costs to succeed? And how is this any different than accelerators like YC investing in founders vs business ideas? The “eccentricity” for lack of a better word is the symptom of his underlying drive, so if you want the returns you take the good with the crazy. I wouldn’t work for Musk (to protect quality of life and mental health), but absolutely would sink all of my high risk allocated capital directly into him as a person. Obsessed people get shit done.
- elliekelly 5y ago
  > And how is this any different than accelerators like YC investing in founders vs business ideas? VC funds are (1) diversified, so it’s less risky — their success or failure isn’t tied to any one persona or even any one company, (2) fund investors have a lot of money so they can afford it if their entire investment goes to zero, and (3) the investors are well-versed in assessing the likelihood of that risk when they make the investment. The same cannot be said for the average Joe who’s a fan of Musk and has $2,500 in their Robinhood account.
  - toomuchtodo 5y ago
    Fair points. I'm unsure how to protect retail more without handicapping those who know what they're doing. Taking away exposure opportunity from retail isn't going to help, but neither does encouraging gambling (although that's what investments are, educated gambles). Musk is exploiting an edge case, but I'm unsure if I can blame him for it based on how it's turned out. Don't invest (or gamble) what you can't afford to lose on high risk investments. Index funds are your friend.
    - elliekelly 5y ago
      Although I'm no fan of Musk he's a pretty smart guy and he's done a pretty good job so far of toeing the line. (Though I don't envy his lawyers because I suspect he toes the line a touch more than they'd prefer.) And, as the saying goes, winning fixes everything, so I think the fact that Tesla is "profitable" and has a promising technology at the core of the business helps, too. It's clear the stock price isn't entirely derived from the company's value but the company clearly isn't worthless, either. All that is to say, I don't think there needs to be any additional restrictions or regulations on investors to deal with meme stocks because I think the problem will eventually be addressed via the existing system. Whether it's Musk or (more likely) some other enterprising social media personality I think we'll eventually see a meme stock that's so egregiously ridiculous and loses a lot of people a lot of money that the SEC, and perhaps the DOJ, will be forced take action. Maybe even multiple egregious meme stocks will be used in quick succession in order signal where the SEC's "hard line" will be. And I eagerly await Matt Levin's "Memes are Securities Fraud" column when it happens!
    - nunez 5y ago
      > Don't invest (or gamble) what you can't afford to lose on high risk investments. Index funds are your friend. 100% truth, but many people don't listen to that. Too boring. I'd rather have Joe Robinhood Investor sink $2,500 into Musk and his mission with Tesla instead of sinking $2,500 into GME or casinos.
- xkjkls 5y ago
  This obsession hasn't always been good, and often caused Elon Musk to make dishonest statements about the overall state of the business and its future. This should scare anyone who is attempting to value Elon Musk at a realistic level.

toomuchtodo 5y ago

You’re not entirely wrong, but Tesla (and a small SpaceX investment via funds) is the closest most people can come to investing in Musk personally. Wouldn’t you invest in someone who is obsessed and will strive at all costs to succeed? And how is this any different than accelerators like YC investing in founders vs business ideas? The “eccentricity” for lack of a better word is the symptom of his underlying drive, so if you want the returns you take the good with the crazy. I wouldn’t work for Musk (to protect quality of life and mental health), but absolutely would sink all of my high risk allocated capital directly into him as a person. Obsessed people get shit done.

elliekelly 5y ago
> And how is this any different than accelerators like YC investing in founders vs business ideas? VC funds are (1) diversified, so it’s less risky — their success or failure isn’t tied to any one persona or even any one company, (2) fund investors have a lot of money so they can afford it if their entire investment goes to zero, and (3) the investors are well-versed in assessing the likelihood of that risk when they make the investment. The same cannot be said for the average Joe who’s a fan of Musk and has $2,500 in their Robinhood account.
- toomuchtodo 5y ago
  Fair points. I'm unsure how to protect retail more without handicapping those who know what they're doing. Taking away exposure opportunity from retail isn't going to help, but neither does encouraging gambling (although that's what investments are, educated gambles). Musk is exploiting an edge case, but I'm unsure if I can blame him for it based on how it's turned out. Don't invest (or gamble) what you can't afford to lose on high risk investments. Index funds are your friend.
  - elliekelly 5y ago
    Although I'm no fan of Musk he's a pretty smart guy and he's done a pretty good job so far of toeing the line. (Though I don't envy his lawyers because I suspect he toes the line a touch more than they'd prefer.) And, as the saying goes, winning fixes everything, so I think the fact that Tesla is "profitable" and has a promising technology at the core of the business helps, too. It's clear the stock price isn't entirely derived from the company's value but the company clearly isn't worthless, either. All that is to say, I don't think there needs to be any additional restrictions or regulations on investors to deal with meme stocks because I think the problem will eventually be addressed via the existing system. Whether it's Musk or (more likely) some other enterprising social media personality I think we'll eventually see a meme stock that's so egregiously ridiculous and loses a lot of people a lot of money that the SEC, and perhaps the DOJ, will be forced take action. Maybe even multiple egregious meme stocks will be used in quick succession in order signal where the SEC's "hard line" will be. And I eagerly await Matt Levin's "Memes are Securities Fraud" column when it happens!
  - nunez 5y ago
    > Don't invest (or gamble) what you can't afford to lose on high risk investments. Index funds are your friend. 100% truth, but many people don't listen to that. Too boring. I'd rather have Joe Robinhood Investor sink $2,500 into Musk and his mission with Tesla instead of sinking $2,500 into GME or casinos.
xkjkls 5y ago
This obsession hasn't always been good, and often caused Elon Musk to make dishonest statements about the overall state of the business and its future. This should scare anyone who is attempting to value Elon Musk at a realistic level.