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> it got way bigger. It's still unclear whether this is due to fundamentals like the ones you mention, or just an irrational stock market. Now that more and m

> it got way bigger. It's still unclear whether this is due to fundamentals like the ones you mention, or just an irrational stock market. Now that more and more companies are coming out with their EVs, the truth might become clearer.

deelowe 5y ago
It's pretty clear to me...
- hutzlibu 5y ago
  Can you enlighten us?
  - deelowe 5y ago
    Tesla's stock performance doesn't justify the price unless they pivot hard into other markets.
JPKab 5y ago
As a recent owner of a model 3, I've been blown away by the charging infrastructure advantage. The non-Tesla chargers near me in Colorado are just plain garbage. Sometimes, they work great, but other days I go back and the terminal won't function. And currently, these chargers are all the owners of non-Tesla EVs have. I'm actually surprised there isn't a legal push by Congress to force Tesla to open up their charging infrastructure to others.
- shiftpgdn 5y ago
  I own both a Audi e-Tron and Tesla Model Y (well, it’s the wife’s but you get the idea.) Taking a road trip in the Audi is all but out of the question because of how awful the charging infrastructure is. That is not say nothing in regards to the litany of design flaws, poor consumption, and miserable dealer support with the Audi. Tesla is easily 10-15 years ahead of all other manufacturers.
  - Closi 5y ago
    > Tesla is easily 10-15 years ahead of all other manufacturers. Well the majority view is that the Porsche Tycan is a better car, but at a different price point - considering the (im)maturity of the market 10-15 years seems a stretch, particularly considering there are some great cars coming out like the mini electric.
    - mft_ 5y ago
      Depends on how ‘better’ is being judged. Premium fit/finish, interior quality, handling, etc. - i.e. the things that the legacy Porsche business was already good at, Taycan is better. Battery tech, motor tech, vertical integration, and (arguably most importantly) overall efficiency, Tesla is ahead, and probably by many years. Tesla also far ahead in effort/time out into developing self-driving, though the jury is obviously still out on how meaningful their approach finally turns out to be.
      - dzhiurgis 5y ago
        > (arguably most importantly) overall efficiency Sorry but pretty much no one cares about efficiency after you break 300-400km range
    - shiftpgdn 5y ago
      I considered the Taycan as a replacement for the e-tron but it has all the same problems as the e-tron. The interior finish and handling dynamics are nicer than Tesla for sure but literally everything else they get wrong. Like I said, they are at least 10 years behind. Here is an example: recently the Audi app which you use to control the car from your phone was down for two weeks for server upgrades. I have worked in IT and software for almost 20 years now and a 2 week outage is unimaginable.
      - anthonygd 5y ago
        I'll agree a 2 week outage is insane, but that's hardly an example of the tech being behind. Shitty process sure and lazy software development too. How about the charge range or stability control? Any idea about the battery's expected life span? What technology do you think Audi is behind on? My impression has been that Tesla nailed the charging network, charge range and raw straight line performance. Everything else they half-assed, i.e. the stuff I care about on a daily basis feels cheap.
- Closi 5y ago
  > I'm actually surprised there isn't a legal push by Congress to force Tesla to open up their charging infrastructure to others. There is in some other countries. IMO the supercharger network is a short-term competitive advantage but probably not a sustainable one as other companies move in.
- mperham 5y ago
  They are opening up in Norway, presumably due to local laws.
  - kwhitefoot 5y ago
    Can you point to a source? All I can find are articles such as this one https://www.tu.no/artikler/apner-tesla-offentlige-ladestasjoner-tredje-kvartal-neste-ar/511493 https://www.tu.no/artikler/apner-tesla-offentlige-ladestasjo... that talk about Tesla bidding for contracts to install charging stations and that the conditions of the contracts require the stations to be open to other brands of car. The article points out that Tesla can do this by dedicating part of the station to third party chargers. So it isn't because they are being forced to do it nor is it necessarily the case that Tesla's own network would be involved.
- revscat 5y ago
  > I’m actually surprised there isn't a legal push by Congress to force Tesla to open up their charging infrastructure to others. Why does this surprise you?
- nunez 5y ago
  > I'm actually surprised there isn't a legal push by Congress to force Tesla to open up their charging infrastructure to others. I honestly don't understand this sentiment. Tesla invested many many years creating a charging network in a competitive environment that actively resisted it. So now that Tesla is super successful in part because of this long-term investment, how is it fair that Tesla _must_ open it up to the _same_ people that resisted them earlier? That's like Apple being forced to give up their Lightning specs to third-parties because they invested years of R&D into creating a fast plug-and-play standard before USB-C gained a foothold.
  - ac29 5y ago
    Because sometimes the government can use its powers for the good of the general public, even if it negatively effects business. How negatively Tesla would be impacted is debatable - I don't think anyone would expect them to be forced to let people use their chargers for free. I dont think people would put up with a gas station that only fueled Toyotas, or a parking lot that only allowed Fords. This doesnt strike me as being terribly different.
  - xkjkls 5y ago
    Why would a government not consider it monopolistic to own both the charging infrastructure and the vehicles themselves?
nscalf 5y ago
No reason it can't be both. Obviously Elon memes helped a lot, but they are making very real and significant progress.
pmorici 5y ago
Their product is so popular production of their Model Y is essentially sold out for the 3rd quarter with 2 weeks to go in the second quarter. They are in a business that has massive efficiency advantages as it scales. There is a good chance Tesla will be the largest company in the world in 10 years. It isn’t a coincidence that you hear all these rumors about Apple trying to get into the automotive business.
ajb 5y ago
There is something between 'fundamentals' and 'irrationality' here. This kind of market cap results from a bet by buyers that, if given access to capital (by inflating the value of Tesla or Elon's holdings of Tesla shares, or its ability to issue more) Tesla will realize the value that the market cap is bid up to. But of course, it's circular - if Tesla's stock wasn't bid up that high, it wouldn't have the capital to realize that value. That doesn't mean it's irrational, but it's not the same as a cold evaluation that a business is already clearly going to be worth than much.
elliekelly 5y ago
I think you have to ask whether Tesla would have the same or similar valuation in any of the following circumstances: - If literally anyone else were CEO. - If Musk hadn’t used twitter to gather a cult-like following of people who idolize him, think the tech is cool, and can’t afford a Tesla but can afford a few shares of the stock. - If Musk hadn’t repeatedly inserted himself into the WSB “meme stock” & crypto counter-culture to cultivate fans within that group of risk-taking investors who are known for ignoring fundamentals and buying stock on their intuition (or even the internet’s intuition!) alone. I’m not saying Tesla is worthless and I even have to give Musk credit for creating an internet persona where he’s helping middle class millennials “stick it to the man” while _being_ the billionaire man. But IMO its very obvious that at least some substantial portion of Tesla’s valuation comes from Musk and his internet antics/persona and is completely detached from the underlying value of Tesla itself.
- toomuchtodo 5y ago
  You’re not entirely wrong, but Tesla (and a small SpaceX investment via funds) is the closest most people can come to investing in Musk personally. Wouldn’t you invest in someone who is obsessed and will strive at all costs to succeed? And how is this any different than accelerators like YC investing in founders vs business ideas? The “eccentricity” for lack of a better word is the symptom of his underlying drive, so if you want the returns you take the good with the crazy. I wouldn’t work for Musk (to protect quality of life and mental health), but absolutely would sink all of my high risk allocated capital directly into him as a person. Obsessed people get shit done.
  - elliekelly 5y ago
    > And how is this any different than accelerators like YC investing in founders vs business ideas? VC funds are (1) diversified, so it’s less risky — their success or failure isn’t tied to any one persona or even any one company, (2) fund investors have a lot of money so they can afford it if their entire investment goes to zero, and (3) the investors are well-versed in assessing the likelihood of that risk when they make the investment. The same cannot be said for the average Joe who’s a fan of Musk and has $2,500 in their Robinhood account.

deelowe 5y ago

It's pretty clear to me...

hutzlibu 5y ago
Can you enlighten us?
- deelowe 5y ago
  Tesla's stock performance doesn't justify the price unless they pivot hard into other markets.

JPKab 5y ago

As a recent owner of a model 3, I've been blown away by the charging infrastructure advantage. The non-Tesla chargers near me in Colorado are just plain garbage. Sometimes, they work great, but other days I go back and the terminal won't function. And currently, these chargers are all the owners of non-Tesla EVs have. I'm actually surprised there isn't a legal push by Congress to force Tesla to open up their charging infrastructure to others.

shiftpgdn 5y ago
I own both a Audi e-Tron and Tesla Model Y (well, it’s the wife’s but you get the idea.) Taking a road trip in the Audi is all but out of the question because of how awful the charging infrastructure is. That is not say nothing in regards to the litany of design flaws, poor consumption, and miserable dealer support with the Audi. Tesla is easily 10-15 years ahead of all other manufacturers.
- Closi 5y ago
  > Tesla is easily 10-15 years ahead of all other manufacturers. Well the majority view is that the Porsche Tycan is a better car, but at a different price point - considering the (im)maturity of the market 10-15 years seems a stretch, particularly considering there are some great cars coming out like the mini electric.
  - mft_ 5y ago
    Depends on how ‘better’ is being judged. Premium fit/finish, interior quality, handling, etc. - i.e. the things that the legacy Porsche business was already good at, Taycan is better. Battery tech, motor tech, vertical integration, and (arguably most importantly) overall efficiency, Tesla is ahead, and probably by many years. Tesla also far ahead in effort/time out into developing self-driving, though the jury is obviously still out on how meaningful their approach finally turns out to be.
    - dzhiurgis 5y ago
      > (arguably most importantly) overall efficiency Sorry but pretty much no one cares about efficiency after you break 300-400km range
  - shiftpgdn 5y ago
    I considered the Taycan as a replacement for the e-tron but it has all the same problems as the e-tron. The interior finish and handling dynamics are nicer than Tesla for sure but literally everything else they get wrong. Like I said, they are at least 10 years behind. Here is an example: recently the Audi app which you use to control the car from your phone was down for two weeks for server upgrades. I have worked in IT and software for almost 20 years now and a 2 week outage is unimaginable.
    - anthonygd 5y ago
      I'll agree a 2 week outage is insane, but that's hardly an example of the tech being behind. Shitty process sure and lazy software development too. How about the charge range or stability control? Any idea about the battery's expected life span? What technology do you think Audi is behind on? My impression has been that Tesla nailed the charging network, charge range and raw straight line performance. Everything else they half-assed, i.e. the stuff I care about on a daily basis feels cheap.
Closi 5y ago
> I'm actually surprised there isn't a legal push by Congress to force Tesla to open up their charging infrastructure to others. There is in some other countries. IMO the supercharger network is a short-term competitive advantage but probably not a sustainable one as other companies move in.
mperham 5y ago
They are opening up in Norway, presumably due to local laws.
- kwhitefoot 5y ago
  Can you point to a source? All I can find are articles such as this one https://www.tu.no/artikler/apner-tesla-offentlige-ladestasjoner-tredje-kvartal-neste-ar/511493 https://www.tu.no/artikler/apner-tesla-offentlige-ladestasjo... that talk about Tesla bidding for contracts to install charging stations and that the conditions of the contracts require the stations to be open to other brands of car. The article points out that Tesla can do this by dedicating part of the station to third party chargers. So it isn't because they are being forced to do it nor is it necessarily the case that Tesla's own network would be involved.
revscat 5y ago
> I’m actually surprised there isn't a legal push by Congress to force Tesla to open up their charging infrastructure to others. Why does this surprise you?
nunez 5y ago
> I'm actually surprised there isn't a legal push by Congress to force Tesla to open up their charging infrastructure to others. I honestly don't understand this sentiment. Tesla invested many many years creating a charging network in a competitive environment that actively resisted it. So now that Tesla is super successful in part because of this long-term investment, how is it fair that Tesla _must_ open it up to the _same_ people that resisted them earlier? That's like Apple being forced to give up their Lightning specs to third-parties because they invested years of R&D into creating a fast plug-and-play standard before USB-C gained a foothold.
- ac29 5y ago
  Because sometimes the government can use its powers for the good of the general public, even if it negatively effects business. How negatively Tesla would be impacted is debatable - I don't think anyone would expect them to be forced to let people use their chargers for free. I dont think people would put up with a gas station that only fueled Toyotas, or a parking lot that only allowed Fords. This doesnt strike me as being terribly different.
- xkjkls 5y ago
  Why would a government not consider it monopolistic to own both the charging infrastructure and the vehicles themselves?

nscalf 5y ago

No reason it can't be both. Obviously Elon memes helped a lot, but they are making very real and significant progress.

pmorici 5y ago

Their product is so popular production of their Model Y is essentially sold out for the 3rd quarter with 2 weeks to go in the second quarter. They are in a business that has massive efficiency advantages as it scales. There is a good chance Tesla will be the largest company in the world in 10 years. It isn’t a coincidence that you hear all these rumors about Apple trying to get into the automotive business.

ajb 5y ago

There is something between 'fundamentals' and 'irrationality' here. This kind of market cap results from a bet by buyers that, if given access to capital (by inflating the value of Tesla or Elon's holdings of Tesla shares, or its ability to issue more) Tesla will realize the value that the market cap is bid up to. But of course, it's circular - if Tesla's stock wasn't bid up that high, it wouldn't have the capital to realize that value. That doesn't mean it's irrational, but it's not the same as a cold evaluation that a business is already clearly going to be worth than much.

elliekelly 5y ago

I think you have to ask whether Tesla would have the same or similar valuation in any of the following circumstances: - If literally anyone else were CEO. - If Musk hadn’t used twitter to gather a cult-like following of people who idolize him, think the tech is cool, and can’t afford a Tesla but can afford a few shares of the stock. - If Musk hadn’t repeatedly inserted himself into the WSB “meme stock” & crypto counter-culture to cultivate fans within that group of risk-taking investors who are known for ignoring fundamentals and buying stock on their intuition (or even the internet’s intuition!) alone. I’m not saying Tesla is worthless and I even have to give Musk credit for creating an internet persona where he’s helping middle class millennials “stick it to the man” while _being_ the billionaire man. But IMO its very obvious that at least some substantial portion of Tesla’s valuation comes from Musk and his internet antics/persona and is completely detached from the underlying value of Tesla itself.

toomuchtodo 5y ago
You’re not entirely wrong, but Tesla (and a small SpaceX investment via funds) is the closest most people can come to investing in Musk personally. Wouldn’t you invest in someone who is obsessed and will strive at all costs to succeed? And how is this any different than accelerators like YC investing in founders vs business ideas? The “eccentricity” for lack of a better word is the symptom of his underlying drive, so if you want the returns you take the good with the crazy. I wouldn’t work for Musk (to protect quality of life and mental health), but absolutely would sink all of my high risk allocated capital directly into him as a person. Obsessed people get shit done.
- elliekelly 5y ago
  > And how is this any different than accelerators like YC investing in founders vs business ideas? VC funds are (1) diversified, so it’s less risky — their success or failure isn’t tied to any one persona or even any one company, (2) fund investors have a lot of money so they can afford it if their entire investment goes to zero, and (3) the investors are well-versed in assessing the likelihood of that risk when they make the investment. The same cannot be said for the average Joe who’s a fan of Musk and has $2,500 in their Robinhood account.