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Been thinking about this for a few weeks. Taiwan is profiting immensely from semiconductors, that means demand for semiconductors is very high. This was also th
by greenforer 5y ago
Been thinking about this for a few weeks. Taiwan is profiting immensely from semiconductors, that means demand for semiconductors is very high. This was also the case before 2020. So, manufacturing semiconductors is profitable.
It is clear to me that if semiconductor production was doubled overnight, many new industries making use of the newly available cheap chips could arise and bring innovation. Why only Taiwan? Those factories are very expensive. Think of what Taiwan has to offer so that we can compare the rest of the world:
- Access to sea
- 20% corporate tax
- (comparatively) sober, stable politics. The rules don't change much.
Then I thought about where I would build one, given this profitable circumstances:
1. Cannot be in (most) of Europe, due to high taxes and advanced and advancing work regulations. Standards are too strict to allow for innovation. Most of low tax Europe are tax heavens unsuitable for high scale industries. Estonia and Georgia give some breathing room, but are friendlier to services.
2. I cannot build it in Africa: high taxes, extreme corruption and high risk of politics affecting the company.
3. I might be able to build it in the US. Being close to the client is not as important as having access to sea. US politics are turbulent and if corporate tax is raised, then there's no competition to be made.
4. South America is a bag. Almost all SA countries have corrupt governments at every layer, but there are a few business friendly ones. Most countries cannot be considered. Panama is already focusing in other things, Uruguay (25% corporate) and Brazil (~34%) cannot compete.
5. I'm unsure about Middle East, I don't see anything there
6. Asia is massive:
6.a. China could happen.
6.b. South East Asia is too erratic compared to Taiwan, investors will go to Taiwan instead, or invest in something else. Singapore is too small.
6.c. Japan is an stagnant economy and there is too much bureaucracy and regulation involved.
7. Australia ~26% corporate tax rate is not going to make the cut. I'm not knowledgeable about regulations.
I probably have missed something, I tried to put onto words my thinking process on why Taiwan might still be the most profitable place to make these industries. The whole world is in the middle of a shortage of this material, yet alternatives to Taiwan don't seem to arise.
- nicoburns 5y agoIf it's so profitable, why can't you take the hit on the higher tax rate?
- greenforer 5y agoYou could, but profit still needs to be larger than real interest rate. Also, in that circumstance you like would invest it in Taiwan, as it would give higher returns
- nicoburns 5y agoSounds like you've just discovered an excellent argument against free movement of capital.
- blueblisters 5y agoI don't think it has anything to do with corporate tax rates (at least no to the extent you suggest it is). It has everything to do with access to cheap skilled labor, resources (water), incentives, and supply chain. Taiwan offers all four through years of honing this industry. After all TSMC is pretty much critical to Taiwan's economy and national security. Secondly, TSMC is so far ahead of the curve that any competitor will take years and billion of dollars to get to where they are right now. ASML develops the technology in close collaboration with TSMC and I suspect TSMC owns many of the patents required to operate EUV successfully. The industry is happy with the status quo because TSMC offers the best technology at the best prices.