> Would China stop at Taiwan? Guesses follow. Mainly based upon my suspicion Chinese are falling into the curse of empires. Similar to how a billionaire will a

> Would China stop at Taiwan? Guesses follow. Mainly based upon my suspicion Chinese are falling into the curse of empires. Similar to how a billionaire will ascribe fiscal success to acumen in other fields. But on a national scale. This is extremely atypical of China’s history, but here we are with them rattling a bunch of their regional neighbors. If they invade Taiwan, they won’t likely stop at Taiwan. But they probably won’t take another bite for a generation or so. > If not where would they invade next? Either Korea (both) or Japan. India antics are a feint. They’ll opportunistically “regent” Pakistan if a Pakistani collapse falls into their lap. If whatever they attempt after a successful Taiwan invasion is also successful, they’ll want a rematch with Vietnam. > Where does the US draw the line? From the Alaskan rhetoric, China is indicating they strongly suspect the US won’t ever draw a line as long as China continues to slowly bleed out the US. Doesn’t matter what US will do. China sets the cadence, it matters what China will do. > Where would the US have the best chance of making a decisive stand? Best time to plant a tree is 30 years ago. Next best time is today. > Taiwan, unfortunately, is not easily defended from China. With several hundred fusion bombs hypersonically delivered, a ham sandwich is defensible. Taiwan doesn’t need to mount a defense that convinces China that Taiwan will win. Taiwan just needs to convince China that China will lose, too.