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This suggests a Bayesian approach. If there is a lab leak, we'd expect a Chinese cover-up to be a more likely than a Chinese cover-up to a zoological origin. So
by abnry 5y ago
This suggests a Bayesian approach. If there is a lab leak, we'd expect a Chinese cover-up to be a more likely than a Chinese cover-up to a zoological origin. So if your priors are that the zoological and lab-leak origins are equally likely, the evidence of Chinese cover-up weighs in favor of the lab leak hypothesis.
- 8note 5y agoMy priors disagree. I'd expect similar likelihood of a chinese coverup regardless of culpability. The embarrassment is too high in both situations
- phire 5y agoThat's only true if you assume China has perfect knowledge of the source of the leak from the very start in both scenarios. In the zoological scenario, they wouldn't have any idea where it came from and might suspect it could be a lab leek simply based on the origin. It's very likely they would engage in cover-up behaviour anyway, just out of caution. And then there are other reasons why they might decide to cover things up. Ironically, a Chinese cover-up is absolutely useless evidence towards a lab leak hypothesis.
- sudosysgen 5y agoChina covered up SARS too and to a much greater extent, and we know that it was zoological. So my prior disagree with yours