3 ms·

> This is provably untrue. Both of you are correct, you're just looking at probabilities conditioned in the opposite way. You're looking at P(trans | killed),

> This is provably untrue. Both of you are correct, you're just looking at probabilities conditioned in the opposite way. You're looking at P(trans | killed), which is low. The parent post is looking at P(killed | trans), which is quite high. Understandably, if you are trans P(killed | trans) is a lot more relevant to you than P(trans | killed).

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
dvt 5y ago
I don't agree, we were talking about proportionality. 0.6% of the US adult population identify as trans (1,254,000). Of that 0.6%, 44 were killed. The math is simple. The overall murder rate in the USA is 0.005% (population: 328 million, yearly murders: 16,425). The per-capita murder rates of trans people in the USA is 0.0035%, barely over half the national average. To make the claim that trans people are disproportionately affected by crime/violence is simply not true.
- Karrot_Kream 5y ago
  > To make the claim that trans people are disproportionately affected by crime/violence is simply not true. It's well-known that many trans hate crimes go unreported or misreported (as the victim is misgendered). So unless you really think it was highly unlikely for there to be >= 19 unreported/misreported trans deaths (19 + 44 / 1_254_000 > 0.005%), then trans death rates are probably higher. At least one source which mentions it: https://www.out.com/crime/2020/7/02/these-are-trans-people-killed-so-far-2020 https://www.out.com/crime/2020/7/02/these-are-trans-people-k...
  - dvt 5y ago
    We're dangerously getting into "no true Scotsman" territory here. Even being as charitable as I can, it just seems that you don't like the data because it doesn't fit your narrative.
    - 9wzYQbTYsAIc 5y ago
      > you don’t like the data because it doesn’t fit your narrative In counter argument, you don’t like the laws of logic and probability because they don’t fit your narrative. Edit: Furthermore, do we not agree, in the United States, under the rule of law, that it is a failure of civil responsibility, punishable by death in some jurisdictions, to murder even 1 person, let alone 44? How is your argument anything other than we must do everything within our rights and capacity, as a country, to prevent each and every failure of civic responsibility?
      - dvt 5y ago
        > How is your argument anything other than we must do everything within our rights and capacity, as a country, to prevent each and every failure of civic responsibility? Apart from the insults (accusing me of not liking logic, etc.), this is a straw-man and, just to be clear, is absolutely not what I'm arguing.
        9wzYQbTYsAIc 5y ago
        Let’s be extra clear: what exactly is your argument?
        FabHK 5y ago
        Not GP, but from my understanding GP was rebutting (convincingly) this specific proposition: > the very small community that we are talking about is disproportionately being subjected to murder
        9wzYQbTYsAIc 5y ago
        The law of averages is not a convincing argument. I believe this paper ought to suffice as the entry point for the non-scientific community to pursue the academic research that supports my original assertion: Violence against transgender people: A review of United States data, Aggression and Violent Behavior, Volume 14, Issue 3, 2009, Pages 170-179 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1359178909000202 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S13591...

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

dvt 5y ago

I don't agree, we were talking about proportionality. 0.6% of the US adult population identify as trans (1,254,000). Of that 0.6%, 44 were killed. The math is simple. The overall murder rate in the USA is 0.005% (population: 328 million, yearly murders: 16,425). The per-capita murder rates of trans people in the USA is 0.0035%, barely over half the national average. To make the claim that trans people are disproportionately affected by crime/violence is simply not true.

Karrot_Kream 5y ago
> To make the claim that trans people are disproportionately affected by crime/violence is simply not true. It's well-known that many trans hate crimes go unreported or misreported (as the victim is misgendered). So unless you really think it was highly unlikely for there to be >= 19 unreported/misreported trans deaths (19 + 44 / 1_254_000 > 0.005%), then trans death rates are probably higher. At least one source which mentions it: https://www.out.com/crime/2020/7/02/these-are-trans-people-killed-so-far-2020 https://www.out.com/crime/2020/7/02/these-are-trans-people-k...
- dvt 5y ago
  We're dangerously getting into "no true Scotsman" territory here. Even being as charitable as I can, it just seems that you don't like the data because it doesn't fit your narrative.
  - 9wzYQbTYsAIc 5y ago
    > you don’t like the data because it doesn’t fit your narrative In counter argument, you don’t like the laws of logic and probability because they don’t fit your narrative. Edit: Furthermore, do we not agree, in the United States, under the rule of law, that it is a failure of civil responsibility, punishable by death in some jurisdictions, to murder even 1 person, let alone 44? How is your argument anything other than we must do everything within our rights and capacity, as a country, to prevent each and every failure of civic responsibility?
    - dvt 5y ago
      > How is your argument anything other than we must do everything within our rights and capacity, as a country, to prevent each and every failure of civic responsibility? Apart from the insults (accusing me of not liking logic, etc.), this is a straw-man and, just to be clear, is absolutely not what I'm arguing.
      - 9wzYQbTYsAIc 5y ago
        Let’s be extra clear: what exactly is your argument?
        FabHK 5y ago
        Not GP, but from my understanding GP was rebutting (convincingly) this specific proposition: > the very small community that we are talking about is disproportionately being subjected to murder
        9wzYQbTYsAIc 5y ago
        The law of averages is not a convincing argument. I believe this paper ought to suffice as the entry point for the non-scientific community to pursue the academic research that supports my original assertion: Violence against transgender people: A review of United States data, Aggression and Violent Behavior, Volume 14, Issue 3, 2009, Pages 170-179 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1359178909000202 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S13591...