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This would be a nice working theory but it is not really supported by the paper the author references. Not least, this line in the paper seems to contrast with

This would be a nice working theory but it is not really supported by the paper the author references. Not least, this line in the paper seems to contrast with the reality of IT teams in my experience. > That fact that an exponential distribution arises in this case is a reflexion of the fact that the queue discipline is of a ' first come, first served' type. In my experience, teams rarely work on a FIFO style queue. They are constantly triaging. This model would be more applicable to a fast-food restaurant. Edit to add: I'm not actually sure how the author gets from the paper to the formula presented at the start of the article. My background is not in math so perhaps there's a missing link I'm not aware of. It would be helpful if that was explained.

microtherion 5y ago
> teams rarely work on a FIFO style queue. They are constantly triaging True, but when you're busy enough, "constantly triaging" itself adds to the workload.
pram 5y ago
I interpreted it more as a symptom of Agile planning. Marketing wants it right now, but it might actually go into the backlog because we're already in our sprint. Then 2 weeks later you might have more important things to deal with so it gets lower in the JIRA pile. etc etc
tobyjsullivan 5y ago
It looks like the author simply linked to the wrong paper. The linked note is The Single Server Queue in Heavy Traffic by Kingman (1960). However, Kingsman's formula was actually defined in On Queues in Heavy Traffic by Kingman (1962)[0]. I cannot find a copy of the latter but based on the preview they appear to be different (but related) works. [0] https://www.jstor.org/stable/2984229 https://www.jstor.org/stable/2984229 [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingman%27s_formula https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingman%27s_formula
regularfry 5y ago
Constantly triaging to make sure that the things people care about are at the top of the backlog, yes, but in my experience generally not deleting tickets that are "not right now". What that means is that while the wait time for a hot ticket can be small, there will be other tickets that wait years to be looked at. Overall the average wait time curve might not be quite exponential, but it'll look similar.

microtherion 5y ago

> teams rarely work on a FIFO style queue. They are constantly triaging True, but when you're busy enough, "constantly triaging" itself adds to the workload.

pram 5y ago

I interpreted it more as a symptom of Agile planning. Marketing wants it right now, but it might actually go into the backlog because we're already in our sprint. Then 2 weeks later you might have more important things to deal with so it gets lower in the JIRA pile. etc etc

tobyjsullivan 5y ago

It looks like the author simply linked to the wrong paper. The linked note is The Single Server Queue in Heavy Traffic by Kingman (1960). However, Kingsman's formula was actually defined in On Queues in Heavy Traffic by Kingman (1962)[0]. I cannot find a copy of the latter but based on the preview they appear to be different (but related) works. [0] https://www.jstor.org/stable/2984229 https://www.jstor.org/stable/2984229 [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingman%27s_formula https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingman%27s_formula

regularfry 5y ago

Constantly triaging to make sure that the things people care about are at the top of the backlog, yes, but in my experience generally not deleting tickets that are "not right now". What that means is that while the wait time for a hot ticket can be small, there will be other tickets that wait years to be looked at. Overall the average wait time curve might not be quite exponential, but it'll look similar.