I think the core discrepancy between people's experiences and beliefs on this subject is the meaning of 'hard' in 'work hard'. If you take that to mean 'applyi

I think the core discrepancy between people's experiences and beliefs on this subject is the meaning of 'hard' in 'work hard'. If you take that to mean 'applying effort' then even in the most ideal meritocracy that would decouple from success, because where the effort goes matters. I think the big difference in perspective between the kids who popped out of school at 6 figures and the people who spent a few years slaving away at 30k a year, is the assumption of maximally directing one's effort. People who make 30k a year have likely made many attempts to direct their effort productively, and gotten little return. Kids who pop out of college making plenty of money, have likely made very few attempts to productively direct their effort, but have had enormous return. I think this causes a difference in the perceived difficulty of accessing a productive outlet for effort. The prior assumes access is hard, meaning most effort is likely to be wasted, while the latter assumes access is easy, meany most effort ends up being productive to one's own success.