> it’s still unclear what a fair price for Bitcoin looks like Note that if Bitcoin replaces the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency (or even as a functi

> it’s still unclear what a fair price for Bitcoin looks like Note that if Bitcoin replaces the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency (or even as a functioning currency), the fair price for Bitcoin is infinite. Dollars will be worthless; we'll be pricing everything in Bitcoin. We can get rough estimates of what price levels will be by dividing total $USD supply by total BTC supply: there are $20T USD within the M2 money supply, there will be a max of $21M BTC ever minted, so you'd expect 1 BTC = roughly $1M USD. A satoshi will be worth roughly 1 cent, so a Big Mac would be around 400 satoshi, a nice restaurant meal out would be maybe 5K satoshi, etc. Bitcoin's volatility is because it's not at all clear that the USD will be replaced as a currency, and even if it is, it's not clear that BTC will be the replacement. You can actually compute the probability that the market ascribes to complete monetary collapse from the ratio between BTC's actual market price to its predicted equilibrium price based on money supply, much like you can compute inflation expectations from the spread between TIPS and T-bills. Right now BTC is trading at about $30K, fair market value on a money-supply-parity basis is about $1M, so the market is assuming about 3% chance that the dollar will be replaced by Bitcoin.