3 ms·

Lumber prices are still 2x they were VERY recently.

• toss1 5y ago
  ummm, not sure how you define "VERY", but Year To Date, it looks like the low was $649.90 on 12-Jan-2021, and last Friday it was $897.90. [1] That's 38% over the low this year, which was in the peak of a global pandemic. Not so huge A full year ago, again in the middle of the global pandemic, it was $431, so we're double that. Not the slightest bit surprising, and the chart overall looks like a big bubble blip since earlier in the year. I don't see how we can interpret that price series as indicating sustained inflation, when we have a clearly unusual and impermanent demand pull and simultaneous supply ramp-up delay. [1] https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/commodities/lbs https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/commodities/lbs
  • thehappypm 5y ago
    That chart tells the story: pre-pandemic, prices were usually around $300-$400 with a 2018 spike up to $600. Now at around $850.
    • toss1 5y ago
      yup, and on a steeply declining trend, looking like a classic mountain profile of a bubble chart, headed back down to the long-term trend. So, yes, you'd still be in the profit zone had you invested in long-term futures pre-pandemic, but left a lot of money on the table by not selling in the last few weeks. perhaps it will change and continue up again. Are you putting any money on that trend? I'm neither long nor short
      • toss1 5y ago
        ...aaaaand a week later, it's down to $737, another 14% loss in a week