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Certain asset classes have inflated dramatically and may continue to do so. Further, we may indeed have a "blow off top" in inflation across all asset classes
by rsync 5y ago
Certain asset classes have inflated dramatically and may continue to do so. Further, we may indeed have a "blow off top" in inflation across all asset classes as policy makers desperately attempt to stave off deflation.
For that reason it is very difficult to hedge properly against short and medium term inflation rates.
Make no mistake, however - the world is in a massively deflationary state. Birth rates across the rich, global north have crashed - including the US, ex-immigration. The population of China will shrink by hundreds of millions over the next few decades. Further, it is the imperative of youth, globally, to pursue a "modern" life script of delaying and minimizing childbirth, etc.
In addition to these very long term, basic drivers of inflation there are now new and interesting factors like work-from-home that serve to further minimize resource use. When people stay home to netflix instead of going out to a movie, that's not inflationary.
Again, very difficult to gauge near-term (Don't Fight the Fed, etc.) but on a longer horizon (but within my own lifetime) I would expect to see significant deflation and/or wild economic gyrations stemming from desperate attempts to stave off said deflation.
- splithalf 5y ago“ or wild economic gyrations stemming from desperate attempts to stave off said deflation.” Seems certain as it’s already begun and once it has begun there’s nothing stopping it.