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If they're not eligible for UBI, but still pay full taxes, their pay would be meager for those poor paying jobs. If not negative. If someone is well educated an

by mantas 5y ago

If they're not eligible for UBI, but still pay full taxes, their pay would be meager for those poor paying jobs. If not negative. If someone is well educated and working in a well-paid sector, it may be not worth it to come to UBI country. Unless one lives in a complete shithole without stable government. Of course, then someone is not likely to be well educated... In most theories I saw, UBI would supplement low wages and become negative only for well off people. So you'd have to pay a nice sum of money for someone to have same take-home pay as UBI jobless. This means UBI countries would need high import tariffs to compete with cheap import from non-UBI. Now what would be nice is to work illegally in an UBI country. Path to ubi sounds like a massive Ponzi scheme TBH. Come work for 10 years for an easy retirement. Especially if you can move back to your homecountry and keep earning UBI.

dagw 5y ago
Everything comes down to how you tweak the numbers. If I was to set up a UBI system I would first of all make it so that once you earn around $40-50k or so you're essentially paying back all your UBI in taxes. UBI will essentially be a benefit only for people earning below median wages. UBI will make it much harder to hire for low paying jobs and that is why you will have to rely on much higher levels of immigration from low wage countries to make up the difference. If you're not OK with that, then you probably shouldn't be supporting UBI. For higher wage, higher quality jobs it might be slightly harder to attract foreign talent, but even with a 20-30% real wage decrease from todays levels the US will still pay more than just about any other country for high end jobs, so it shouldn't be too much of a problem. Come work for 10 years for an easy retirement. Especially if you can move back to your homecountry and keep earning UBI. That is why I think it's important to tie UBI to residency rather than just citizenship. If you leave the US you lose UBI.
- mantas 5y ago
  > once you earn around $40-50k <...> median An absolute sum of money is meaningless in such discussions. In my whereabouts $40-50k would be easily top-10% of not top-5% earnings. Median is a better measure. But how do we calculate median in UBI society? Do we calculate every resident? Only UBI citizens? Only working UBI citizens? Or do we take median pay of today, look what professions it is and then look at what those professions make after UBI? Personally I'm very skeptical of UBI. IMO it's not possible till all low paying jobs are automated away. Otherwise your solution would create a very unhealthy two-ways society. Sort of like Arab oil states today. Where locals live off oil money and lots of 2nd-tier residents from poor countries are in sort a sort of modern slavery. I don't see how a healthy democratic society could in such a way. There're too many different groups with different incentives.
  - dagw 5y ago
    The $40-50k is based on current salaries in the US. If you're looking at different country or different time then you obviously have to tweak those numbers based on median income. Exactly what median to use is an interesting problem. However setting the levels of UBI is probably not hard part, agreeing how to raise it every year to adjust for inflation and other cost of living increases is where all the problems will come from. I fear the UBI will also require a more dynamic tax code (to control inflation, as postulated by MMM) that will be very tricky to implement politically. As to the two level society, I think that is inevitable with UBI. Hopefully it won't be as bad as what we're seeing in some oil states, but it will be similar. Personally I don't think UBI is good idea, but do think it's doable. It will however permanently change the country, possibly for the worse.
    - mantas 5y ago
      As you mentioned US-wide median, it got me thinking. I wonder if big and diverse territory wide median would work. I'm not that familiar with US state-to-state median differences. But in EU absolute median could differ 3x from country to country. Existing salary laws already create a lot of opportunities for arbitraging. E.g. truckers and handymen working in expensive, living out of cars or cheapest houses they can find and then spending their time off (as well as paying taxes) in cheap countries. Country-adjusted UBI could make this even worse. While EU-wide UBI median would create it's own share of issues. Any idea is doable if you throw enough propaganda and/or gunpower behind it :)

by mantas 5y ago

dagw 5y ago

Everything comes down to how you tweak the numbers. If I was to set up a UBI system I would first of all make it so that once you earn around $40-50k or so you're essentially paying back all your UBI in taxes. UBI will essentially be a benefit only for people earning below median wages. UBI will make it much harder to hire for low paying jobs and that is why you will have to rely on much higher levels of immigration from low wage countries to make up the difference. If you're not OK with that, then you probably shouldn't be supporting UBI. For higher wage, higher quality jobs it might be slightly harder to attract foreign talent, but even with a 20-30% real wage decrease from todays levels the US will still pay more than just about any other country for high end jobs, so it shouldn't be too much of a problem. Come work for 10 years for an easy retirement. Especially if you can move back to your homecountry and keep earning UBI. That is why I think it's important to tie UBI to residency rather than just citizenship. If you leave the US you lose UBI.

mantas 5y ago
> once you earn around $40-50k <...> median An absolute sum of money is meaningless in such discussions. In my whereabouts $40-50k would be easily top-10% of not top-5% earnings. Median is a better measure. But how do we calculate median in UBI society? Do we calculate every resident? Only UBI citizens? Only working UBI citizens? Or do we take median pay of today, look what professions it is and then look at what those professions make after UBI? Personally I'm very skeptical of UBI. IMO it's not possible till all low paying jobs are automated away. Otherwise your solution would create a very unhealthy two-ways society. Sort of like Arab oil states today. Where locals live off oil money and lots of 2nd-tier residents from poor countries are in sort a sort of modern slavery. I don't see how a healthy democratic society could in such a way. There're too many different groups with different incentives.
- dagw 5y ago
  The $40-50k is based on current salaries in the US. If you're looking at different country or different time then you obviously have to tweak those numbers based on median income. Exactly what median to use is an interesting problem. However setting the levels of UBI is probably not hard part, agreeing how to raise it every year to adjust for inflation and other cost of living increases is where all the problems will come from. I fear the UBI will also require a more dynamic tax code (to control inflation, as postulated by MMM) that will be very tricky to implement politically. As to the two level society, I think that is inevitable with UBI. Hopefully it won't be as bad as what we're seeing in some oil states, but it will be similar. Personally I don't think UBI is good idea, but do think it's doable. It will however permanently change the country, possibly for the worse.
  - mantas 5y ago
    As you mentioned US-wide median, it got me thinking. I wonder if big and diverse territory wide median would work. I'm not that familiar with US state-to-state median differences. But in EU absolute median could differ 3x from country to country. Existing salary laws already create a lot of opportunities for arbitraging. E.g. truckers and handymen working in expensive, living out of cars or cheapest houses they can find and then spending their time off (as well as paying taxes) in cheap countries. Country-adjusted UBI could make this even worse. While EU-wide UBI median would create it's own share of issues. Any idea is doable if you throw enough propaganda and/or gunpower behind it :)