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It wasn't a rounding error, the wind wasn't blowing, which is the problem with these renewables, they don't work when the wind doesn't blow. If you are really

It wasn't a rounding error, the wind wasn't blowing, which is the problem with these renewables, they don't work when the wind doesn't blow. If you are really open to a different framework for analyzing energy policies, I recommend The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels by Alex Epstein.

kaliszad 5y ago
Thank you for the book recommendation. I don't know if it is still as relevant, when it was written in 2014. The situation changed dramatically, the International Energy Agency (IEA) writes in the report https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2020?mode=overview https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2020?mode=o... "Supportive policies and maturing technologies are enabling very cheap access to capital in leading markets. With sharp cost reductions over the past decade, solar PV is consistently cheaper than new coal- or gasfired power plants in most countries, and solar projects now offer some of the lowest cost electricity ever seen." The agency even reconsidered estimates for the future, estimating more usage of solar, because it trends cheaper than previously thought. The Internation Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) supports these findings: https://www.irena.org/newsroom/pressreleases/2020/Jun/Renewables-Increasingly-Beat-Even-Cheapest-Coal-Competitors-on-Cost https://www.irena.org/newsroom/pressreleases/2020/Jun/Renewa... Certainly the electric grid in the USA is in an unfortunate position because it is not so well connected, looking quite island-like. There is a great need for much higher long distance energy transfer capacity and better interconnects. We know, that the wind doesn't blow constantly and can quite reliably predict it days in advance/ can also apply statistics. It is a factor in planing from the start, else you cannot calculate the return on investment and will not get financing. With storage or enough transmission capacity, you can work around this problems and flatten the peaks and valleys in production or demand. The central limit theorem is your friend: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_limit_theorem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_limit_theorem if you have enough independent sources (which you create by having long distance transmission capacity or vast storage capacity basically). Also, in some rather remote parts of the world, solar and wind (and perhaps micro dams) is the only way you can generate electricity economically. This doesn't only concern islands and "third world" countries but also remote parts in the USA.

kaliszad 5y ago

Thank you for the book recommendation. I don't know if it is still as relevant, when it was written in 2014. The situation changed dramatically, the International Energy Agency (IEA) writes in the report https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2020?mode=overview https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2020?mode=o... "Supportive policies and maturing technologies are enabling very cheap access to capital in leading markets. With sharp cost reductions over the past decade, solar PV is consistently cheaper than new coal- or gasfired power plants in most countries, and solar projects now offer some of the lowest cost electricity ever seen." The agency even reconsidered estimates for the future, estimating more usage of solar, because it trends cheaper than previously thought. The Internation Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) supports these findings: https://www.irena.org/newsroom/pressreleases/2020/Jun/Renewables-Increasingly-Beat-Even-Cheapest-Coal-Competitors-on-Cost https://www.irena.org/newsroom/pressreleases/2020/Jun/Renewa... Certainly the electric grid in the USA is in an unfortunate position because it is not so well connected, looking quite island-like. There is a great need for much higher long distance energy transfer capacity and better interconnects. We know, that the wind doesn't blow constantly and can quite reliably predict it days in advance/ can also apply statistics. It is a factor in planing from the start, else you cannot calculate the return on investment and will not get financing. With storage or enough transmission capacity, you can work around this problems and flatten the peaks and valleys in production or demand. The central limit theorem is your friend: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_limit_theorem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_limit_theorem if you have enough independent sources (which you create by having long distance transmission capacity or vast storage capacity basically). Also, in some rather remote parts of the world, solar and wind (and perhaps micro dams) is the only way you can generate electricity economically. This doesn't only concern islands and "third world" countries but also remote parts in the USA.