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> Sending a diversion group into Crimea was not dumb? Biden has famously scolded Poroshenko for this. What about sending military ships through the Kerch strait

> Sending a diversion group into Crimea was not dumb? Biden has famously scolded Poroshenko for this. What about sending military ships through the Kerch strait without following adequate procedures (IIRC Ukranian military ships have passed it without issues like month before the incident) in an attempt to influence upcoming elections? Compared to those provocations, AIS spoofing is a child's play. Kerch straight is obviously doesn't belong to Russia, and any party free to break the ceasefire at any moment. Without peace treaty in between Russia, and Ukraine, both sides are formally at war. Casus belli is not needed. Russia will never order to open fire on US ships in sane mind, they remember Khasham well. A destroyer group + US airforce from Turkey, and Europe can alone make a short work of whatever Russia can throw at them within hours. Instead, with will use all, and every way to get them out without firing a shot: pressure, intimidation, lawfare, disinformation, quiet sabotage, 5th columnists, informal forces.

fuoqi 5y ago
>Kerch straight is obviously doesn't belong to Russia Russia clearly thinks otherwise, so forcing the issue is de facto a clear provocation. >Without peace treaty in between Russia, and Ukraine, both sides are formally at war Lol what? Please, watch less Ukranian TV if you can. Neither Ukraine, nor Russia have declared a state of war on other. It's a very simple and easily verifiable fact. And Ukraine is quite happy to take money from Russia whenever it can. Russia is still a first or second trading partner of Ukraine. Imagine during WWII USSR having similar economic ties with Germany or USA with Japan. I hope you will not start to talk about "hybrid war". Firstly, it's a legally meaningless term. Secondly, by appliying the same criteria Syria and USA are also at war with each other. >Russia will never order to open fire on US ships in sane mind, they remember Khasham well. Neither USA will open fire on Russian military forces since it can very quickly devolve into exchange of nuclear strikes. In Kasham the US hit Russian mercanary forces operating in gray area. I doubt USA would have risked a nuclear war over Blackwater personnel getting killed in similar circumstances. Even the story about alleged bounties for killing American soldiers in Afghanistan have ended without any significant consequences.
- JumpCrisscross 5y ago
  > Neither Ukraine, nor Russia have declared a state of war on other Nobody declares war anymore. And a formal declaration of war isn't a prerequisite for being in a state of war. (By that definition, the United States has been at peace since WWII.)
  - denton-scratch 5y ago
    The GP said the two states are formally at war; it's therefore reasonable to point out that there has been no formal declaration.

fuoqi 5y ago

>Kerch straight is obviously doesn't belong to Russia Russia clearly thinks otherwise, so forcing the issue is de facto a clear provocation. >Without peace treaty in between Russia, and Ukraine, both sides are formally at war Lol what? Please, watch less Ukranian TV if you can. Neither Ukraine, nor Russia have declared a state of war on other. It's a very simple and easily verifiable fact. And Ukraine is quite happy to take money from Russia whenever it can. Russia is still a first or second trading partner of Ukraine. Imagine during WWII USSR having similar economic ties with Germany or USA with Japan. I hope you will not start to talk about "hybrid war". Firstly, it's a legally meaningless term. Secondly, by appliying the same criteria Syria and USA are also at war with each other. >Russia will never order to open fire on US ships in sane mind, they remember Khasham well. Neither USA will open fire on Russian military forces since it can very quickly devolve into exchange of nuclear strikes. In Kasham the US hit Russian mercanary forces operating in gray area. I doubt USA would have risked a nuclear war over Blackwater personnel getting killed in similar circumstances. Even the story about alleged bounties for killing American soldiers in Afghanistan have ended without any significant consequences.

JumpCrisscross 5y ago
> Neither Ukraine, nor Russia have declared a state of war on other Nobody declares war anymore. And a formal declaration of war isn't a prerequisite for being in a state of war. (By that definition, the United States has been at peace since WWII.)
- denton-scratch 5y ago
  The GP said the two states are formally at war; it's therefore reasonable to point out that there has been no formal declaration.