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The article implies that AIS was spoofed by the Russian side, but I find it more likely it was a case of trolling from the Ukranian side. Considering that USA a

by fuoqi 5y ago

The article implies that AIS was spoofed by the Russian side, but I find it more likely it was a case of trolling from the Ukranian side. Considering that USA and Russia have significant SIGINT capabilities in the region, finding source of the signal and determining that its a fake one should be quite easy for them. And it goes without saying that any competent military will not trust easily spoofable AIS data.

papito 5y ago
1. Geopolitical trolling is not a Ukrainian thing, like at all (but definitely is Russian, even through official embassy accounts) 2. They would never do something as dumb when it comes to NATO or the US. There is zero reason to. So, you have to define what the actual trolling here would be.
- fuoqi 5y ago
  >Geopolitical trolling is not a Ukrainian thing, like at all Trying to get Nazi collaborant's slogan on the national football team uniforms is not a case of geopolitical trolling? Yes, Ukraine has significantly smaller capabilities compared to Russia, so you don't hear about it as often, especially in the western outlets, but it still tries to hurt Russia where it can (not to blame Ukraine, it's a logical behaviour considering the currently dominant narrative in the country). Also note that I have not said that it was done by the Ukranian goverment (altough I would not be surprised considering its sheer incompetence), AIS spoofing can be done relatively easy by civilians with sufficient knowledge and hardware. >They would never do something as dumb when it comes to NATO or the US. Sending a diversion group into Crimea was not dumb? Biden has famously scolded Poroshenko for this. What about sending military ships through the Kerch strait without following adequate procedures (IIRC Ukranian military ships have passed it without issues like month before the incident) in an attempt to influence upcoming elections? Compared to those provocations, AIS spoofing is a child's play. >There is zero reason to. Getting Russian military into a state of high alert for effectively zero cost? Not that it would work of course.
  - baybal2 5y ago
    > Sending a diversion group into Crimea was not dumb? Biden has famously scolded Poroshenko for this. What about sending military ships through the Kerch strait without following adequate procedures (IIRC Ukranian military ships have passed it without issues like month before the incident) in an attempt to influence upcoming elections? Compared to those provocations, AIS spoofing is a child's play. Kerch straight is obviously doesn't belong to Russia, and any party free to break the ceasefire at any moment. Without peace treaty in between Russia, and Ukraine, both sides are formally at war. Casus belli is not needed. Russia will never order to open fire on US ships in sane mind, they remember Khasham well. A destroyer group + US airforce from Turkey, and Europe can alone make a short work of whatever Russia can throw at them within hours. Instead, with will use all, and every way to get them out without firing a shot: pressure, intimidation, lawfare, disinformation, quiet sabotage, 5th columnists, informal forces.
    - fuoqi 5y ago
      >Kerch straight is obviously doesn't belong to Russia Russia clearly thinks otherwise, so forcing the issue is de facto a clear provocation. >Without peace treaty in between Russia, and Ukraine, both sides are formally at war Lol what? Please, watch less Ukranian TV if you can. Neither Ukraine, nor Russia have declared a state of war on other. It's a very simple and easily verifiable fact. And Ukraine is quite happy to take money from Russia whenever it can. Russia is still a first or second trading partner of Ukraine. Imagine during WWII USSR having similar economic ties with Germany or USA with Japan. I hope you will not start to talk about "hybrid war". Firstly, it's a legally meaningless term. Secondly, by appliying the same criteria Syria and USA are also at war with each other. >Russia will never order to open fire on US ships in sane mind, they remember Khasham well. Neither USA will open fire on Russian military forces since it can very quickly devolve into exchange of nuclear strikes. In Kasham the US hit Russian mercanary forces operating in gray area. I doubt USA would have risked a nuclear war over Blackwater personnel getting killed in similar circumstances. Even the story about alleged bounties for killing American soldiers in Afghanistan have ended without any significant consequences.
      - 5y ago
- 0x737368 5y ago
  You are saying that Ukraine has zero reason to do this and not so subtly alluding to that it's Russia who did it. But what benefit does Russia derive from this then?
  - wolverine876 5y ago
    For example, Russia could create disinformation that implicates NATO for some incident.
    - 0x737368 5y ago
      And that is somehow a better reason than Ukrainians aggravating Russia near its borders whilst there's convenient NATO presence there?
      - papito 5y ago
        Hey, at least Ukraine is within its borders, unlike some other countries nearby.
        0x737368 5y ago
        What do you mean?
- stefantalpalaru 5y ago
  > They would never do something as dumb when it comes to NATO or the US. There is zero reason to. "American bombers also flew directly towards Soviet airspace, peeling off at the last moment, sometimes several times per week. These near-penetrations were designed to test Soviet radar vulnerability as well as demonstrate US capabilities in a nuclear war." - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Able_Archer_83#Psychological_operations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Able_Archer_83#Psychological_o...
throw0101a 5y ago
> finding source of the signal and determining that its a fake one should be quite easy for them. You can do it from your basement: * https://flightaware.com/adsb/mlat/ https://flightaware.com/adsb/mlat/ * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multilateration https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multilateration * http://www.multilateration.com/surveillance/multilateration.html http://www.multilateration.com/surveillance/multilateration....
boomboomsubban 5y ago
I don't see how it implies Russia was at fault, asking NATO for comment but not Russia seems like they're blaming NATO.
zero_deg_kevin 5y ago
Where does the article suggest that the AIS data was spoofed by the Russian side? I see a suggestion that it was spoofed, but not by who.

by fuoqi 5y ago

papito 5y ago

1. Geopolitical trolling is not a Ukrainian thing, like at all (but definitely is Russian, even through official embassy accounts) 2. They would never do something as dumb when it comes to NATO or the US. There is zero reason to. So, you have to define what the actual trolling here would be.

fuoqi 5y ago
>Geopolitical trolling is not a Ukrainian thing, like at all Trying to get Nazi collaborant's slogan on the national football team uniforms is not a case of geopolitical trolling? Yes, Ukraine has significantly smaller capabilities compared to Russia, so you don't hear about it as often, especially in the western outlets, but it still tries to hurt Russia where it can (not to blame Ukraine, it's a logical behaviour considering the currently dominant narrative in the country). Also note that I have not said that it was done by the Ukranian goverment (altough I would not be surprised considering its sheer incompetence), AIS spoofing can be done relatively easy by civilians with sufficient knowledge and hardware. >They would never do something as dumb when it comes to NATO or the US. Sending a diversion group into Crimea was not dumb? Biden has famously scolded Poroshenko for this. What about sending military ships through the Kerch strait without following adequate procedures (IIRC Ukranian military ships have passed it without issues like month before the incident) in an attempt to influence upcoming elections? Compared to those provocations, AIS spoofing is a child's play. >There is zero reason to. Getting Russian military into a state of high alert for effectively zero cost? Not that it would work of course.
- baybal2 5y ago
  > Sending a diversion group into Crimea was not dumb? Biden has famously scolded Poroshenko for this. What about sending military ships through the Kerch strait without following adequate procedures (IIRC Ukranian military ships have passed it without issues like month before the incident) in an attempt to influence upcoming elections? Compared to those provocations, AIS spoofing is a child's play. Kerch straight is obviously doesn't belong to Russia, and any party free to break the ceasefire at any moment. Without peace treaty in between Russia, and Ukraine, both sides are formally at war. Casus belli is not needed. Russia will never order to open fire on US ships in sane mind, they remember Khasham well. A destroyer group + US airforce from Turkey, and Europe can alone make a short work of whatever Russia can throw at them within hours. Instead, with will use all, and every way to get them out without firing a shot: pressure, intimidation, lawfare, disinformation, quiet sabotage, 5th columnists, informal forces.
  - fuoqi 5y ago
    >Kerch straight is obviously doesn't belong to Russia Russia clearly thinks otherwise, so forcing the issue is de facto a clear provocation. >Without peace treaty in between Russia, and Ukraine, both sides are formally at war Lol what? Please, watch less Ukranian TV if you can. Neither Ukraine, nor Russia have declared a state of war on other. It's a very simple and easily verifiable fact. And Ukraine is quite happy to take money from Russia whenever it can. Russia is still a first or second trading partner of Ukraine. Imagine during WWII USSR having similar economic ties with Germany or USA with Japan. I hope you will not start to talk about "hybrid war". Firstly, it's a legally meaningless term. Secondly, by appliying the same criteria Syria and USA are also at war with each other. >Russia will never order to open fire on US ships in sane mind, they remember Khasham well. Neither USA will open fire on Russian military forces since it can very quickly devolve into exchange of nuclear strikes. In Kasham the US hit Russian mercanary forces operating in gray area. I doubt USA would have risked a nuclear war over Blackwater personnel getting killed in similar circumstances. Even the story about alleged bounties for killing American soldiers in Afghanistan have ended without any significant consequences.
    - 5y ago
0x737368 5y ago
You are saying that Ukraine has zero reason to do this and not so subtly alluding to that it's Russia who did it. But what benefit does Russia derive from this then?
- wolverine876 5y ago
  For example, Russia could create disinformation that implicates NATO for some incident.
  - 0x737368 5y ago
    And that is somehow a better reason than Ukrainians aggravating Russia near its borders whilst there's convenient NATO presence there?
    - papito 5y ago
      Hey, at least Ukraine is within its borders, unlike some other countries nearby.
      - 0x737368 5y ago
        What do you mean?
stefantalpalaru 5y ago
> They would never do something as dumb when it comes to NATO or the US. There is zero reason to. "American bombers also flew directly towards Soviet airspace, peeling off at the last moment, sometimes several times per week. These near-penetrations were designed to test Soviet radar vulnerability as well as demonstrate US capabilities in a nuclear war." - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Able_Archer_83#Psychological_operations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Able_Archer_83#Psychological_o...

throw0101a 5y ago

> finding source of the signal and determining that its a fake one should be quite easy for them. You can do it from your basement: * https://flightaware.com/adsb/mlat/ https://flightaware.com/adsb/mlat/ * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multilateration https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multilateration * http://www.multilateration.com/surveillance/multilateration.html http://www.multilateration.com/surveillance/multilateration....

boomboomsubban 5y ago

I don't see how it implies Russia was at fault, asking NATO for comment but not Russia seems like they're blaming NATO.

zero_deg_kevin 5y ago

Where does the article suggest that the AIS data was spoofed by the Russian side? I see a suggestion that it was spoofed, but not by who.