3 ms·
That logic applies when you joined a while ago. However, with the stock sky high (P/E 66, double GOOG 33), joining Amazon right now may not give you that potent
by thanhhaimai 5y ago
That logic applies when you joined a while ago. However, with the stock sky high (P/E 66, double GOOG 33), joining Amazon right now may not give you that potential upside anymore. Your managers and long time careers will get a larger portion of the upside. It's already evident by the stock growth of GOOG compared to AMZN in the past one year/quarter. The P/E of Amazon is high, compared with the growth potential vs others in FAANG. Picking a company to join is also akin to pick a stock to invest. Low P/E is not everything, but it's an important part of the equation.
For non-Staff level SWEs, my opinion is that joining a FAANG with lower P/E is better for your future earnings.
- testing_1_2_3_4 5y agoAmazon's PE has always been this high
- state_less 5y agoBut their market cap hasn’t. Odds are they won’t 5x their size in the next five years as they did in their last five.
- bin_bash 5y agoThat's what people said 5 years ago.
- WJW 5y agoEventually they'll start being right. Not even Amazon can grow at this pace forever.
- 55555 5y agoTheir retail business is still in a tiny portion of the world.
- testing_1_2_3_4 5y agonot to mention continued cloud growth, not just as a market, but the AWS share of that growing market.
- state_less 5y agoI’m not seeing estimates of Amazon at 5x larger business (revenue). Estimates have Amazon at ~2x revenue ($850ish B) in five years and earnings growth slower than current levels. Folks think they’ll grow, just not quite as fast. We’ll see. I think it’s going to be hard to maintain today’s growth rate at this size.
- maverick-iceman 5y ago> For non-Staff level SWEs, my opinion is that joining a FAANG with lower P/E is better for your future earnings. No, because mr. Market has been looking at everything except P/E, more essentially you can't spend P/E. You spend price. If you want to throw in P/E in the analysis fine, but then you have to throw in every other element which makes the stock move: 1) Cult CEO who is able to sell the narrative 2) Fed policy 3) Macro environment 4) Odds of company being targeted by the DOJ and all the other trillions of factors which influences the price of a security. As Druckenmiller reminds us: "There is not a phenomenon in the world which doesn't affect the price of a security in some shape or form, no matter how small"