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Economic incentives are never going to really work well in improving fertility rates. If you look at the data in the US, the biggest predictor of fertility is

Economic incentives are never going to really work well in improving fertility rates. If you look at the data in the US, the biggest predictor of fertility is religion, with religious people in the US having 2-3x more kids than non religious people. Most of the decline in birthrate within both western Europe and the US can be traced to increasing drops in religion.

stephc_int13 5y ago
From what I've read, the biggest predictor is girls education, but this is not incompatible.
- rayiner 5y ago
  It depends on what you mean by “education.” In the US, the high school graduation rate of women has exceeded that of men since at least 1940. The 20th century fertility rate peak happened in 1965, which also coincided with peak religiosity. During the first part of the 20th century, fertility rates, high school graduation rates, and church attendance all went up at the same time.
- lalaland1125 5y ago
  Both education and religion play a role, but at least in the US religion has a stronger correlation. The reason why the effect of education in the US is weaker (compared to third world countries) is probably because we require 12 years for all students.
- lotsofpulp 5y ago
  I think the biggest predictor will be women’s financial independence, as well as cheap or free effective birth controls. I suspect the vast majority of women in the past were “coerced” into having the number of children they did, to put it in most charitable terms. If they had the same freedom and access to birth control that women had today, I doubt we would have seen all the 3+ children families we did.
  - mensetmanusman 5y ago
    It’s an interesting question. It seems higher incomes can increase fertility: https://ifstudies.org/blog/how-income-affects-fertility https://ifstudies.org/blog/how-income-affects-fertility Also note that women’s subjective well being has only decreased over the last century: https://ifstudies.org/blog/how-income-affects-fertility https://ifstudies.org/blog/how-income-affects-fertility Also note that women’s average goal for number of children is ~ 3. The differential between what they want and what they are getting may be contributing to the centuries long decline in life satisfaction among women.
sitharus 5y ago
> Most of the decline in birthrate within both western Europe and the US can be traced to increasing drops in religion. I would debate this conclusion. The drop in people observing organised religions over the last 40 years also correlates with many other things. Off the top of my head: Increase in the cost of education Increase in the cost of housing relative to income Increased use of pesticides and artificial colours/flavours/sweeteners Increased global connectivity Greater average life expectancy Lower taxation on the rich And I’m sure there are many more. Determining which of these, if any, cause the lowered birth rate would take years of study.

stephc_int13 5y ago

From what I've read, the biggest predictor is girls education, but this is not incompatible.

rayiner 5y ago
It depends on what you mean by “education.” In the US, the high school graduation rate of women has exceeded that of men since at least 1940. The 20th century fertility rate peak happened in 1965, which also coincided with peak religiosity. During the first part of the 20th century, fertility rates, high school graduation rates, and church attendance all went up at the same time.
lalaland1125 5y ago
Both education and religion play a role, but at least in the US religion has a stronger correlation. The reason why the effect of education in the US is weaker (compared to third world countries) is probably because we require 12 years for all students.
lotsofpulp 5y ago
I think the biggest predictor will be women’s financial independence, as well as cheap or free effective birth controls. I suspect the vast majority of women in the past were “coerced” into having the number of children they did, to put it in most charitable terms. If they had the same freedom and access to birth control that women had today, I doubt we would have seen all the 3+ children families we did.
- mensetmanusman 5y ago
  It’s an interesting question. It seems higher incomes can increase fertility: https://ifstudies.org/blog/how-income-affects-fertility https://ifstudies.org/blog/how-income-affects-fertility Also note that women’s subjective well being has only decreased over the last century: https://ifstudies.org/blog/how-income-affects-fertility https://ifstudies.org/blog/how-income-affects-fertility Also note that women’s average goal for number of children is ~ 3. The differential between what they want and what they are getting may be contributing to the centuries long decline in life satisfaction among women.

sitharus 5y ago

> Most of the decline in birthrate within both western Europe and the US can be traced to increasing drops in religion. I would debate this conclusion. The drop in people observing organised religions over the last 40 years also correlates with many other things. Off the top of my head: Increase in the cost of education Increase in the cost of housing relative to income Increased use of pesticides and artificial colours/flavours/sweeteners Increased global connectivity Greater average life expectancy Lower taxation on the rich And I’m sure there are many more. Determining which of these, if any, cause the lowered birth rate would take years of study.