3 ms·
Macabre question, but a serious one. Has the birth rate dropped below the death rate? If not, then the naive approach to me, would be that this all works out i
by 22c 5y ago
Macabre question, but a serious one.
Has the birth rate dropped below the death rate? If not, then the naive approach to me, would be that this all works out in the wash.
More specifically, does the years of life "lost" due to premature death outweigh the years of life "lost" due to declining birth rates?
We won't really know until:
a) premature deaths return to pre-pandemic levels
b) birth rates recover to pre-pandemic levels
- jtbayly 5y agoFrance birth rate per 1000: 11 France death rate per 1000: 9.4 However, the fertility rate (total births per woman) was 1.87 before the pandemic, which is well below the replacement level of 2.1. Fertility rate is really the number that matters, as an aging population eventually hits the years where larger generations die off, and then the death rate is much higher than the birth rate, and the population drops dramatically.
- 22c 5y agoYes. I agree, birth rates have been lower in many places before the pandemic, probably in gradual decline over the last 60 years. Perhaps I should've clarified that I fully expect that we'll be dealing with an ageing population in the future. The question here is whether or not the pandemic played any significant role. It's possible that it may have even slightly "helped" the problem of an ageing population.
- jtbayly 5y agoAh. I see what you’re getting at now.