Modern cars last a long time, regardless of the powerplant. Old cars having catastrophic mechanical failure doesn't drive ownership turnover - in fact the oppos

Modern cars last a long time, regardless of the powerplant. Old cars having catastrophic mechanical failure doesn't drive ownership turnover - in fact the opposite is true for most vehicles, as it's easier and cheaper to address significant mechanical failure in say, an 80's Chevy pickup than a similar issues in 2010's chevy pickup. Turnover instead is primarily attributed to mounting maintenance/ownership costs that are primarily related to all the value-add features companies keep adding to keep up with joneses. In addition, "Catastrophic" Failures (eg Totalling) is much more prevalent not due to unreliability of ICE systems, but rather, the new safety standards that result in high replacement costs (crumple zones for example can turn even minor incidents into significant repair costs, even if it's not mechanically compromised). Those same pain points will be just as if not more present, no matter the powerplant, and the simplicity of electrical drivetrains will be offset by the high cost and short life of batteries (unless there's some revolution in battery tech on the horizon, which I certainly hope for, and is possible, but am not expecting to happen as a simple result of economies of scale). So the drivetrains may well last longer, but that's not what drives first-owners of cars to trade/sell for a newer model, as drivetrains already well outlast most first owners desire to keep them.