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Just wait until electric cars hit the mainstream - those things are going to last forever in places like California. Honestly, they might be come infeasible fr

Just wait until electric cars hit the mainstream - those things are going to last forever in places like California. Honestly, they might be come infeasible from a software perspective far before they do from a mechanical perspective.

heavyset_go 5y ago
> Just wait until electric cars hit the mainstream - those things are going to last forever in places like California. Their batteries sure won't.
- elihu 5y ago
  Depends on the technology and how well they're thermally managed. Lithium iron phosphate cells are starting to show up in lower-end EVs and those could last a very long time. Really, the thing with old batteries isn't so much that they degrade (though a few cars had problems with it like the early Nissan Leafs), but rather that the technology is getting better all the time, and even if degradation isn't a factor, a twenty-year-old battery will be based on twenty-year-old tech, whereas newer cars will be have more range, charge more quickly, and be lighter.
Zandikar 5y ago
Modern cars last a long time, regardless of the powerplant. Old cars having catastrophic mechanical failure doesn't drive ownership turnover - in fact the opposite is true for most vehicles, as it's easier and cheaper to address significant mechanical failure in say, an 80's Chevy pickup than a similar issues in 2010's chevy pickup. Turnover instead is primarily attributed to mounting maintenance/ownership costs that are primarily related to all the value-add features companies keep adding to keep up with joneses. In addition, "Catastrophic" Failures (eg Totalling) is much more prevalent not due to unreliability of ICE systems, but rather, the new safety standards that result in high replacement costs (crumple zones for example can turn even minor incidents into significant repair costs, even if it's not mechanically compromised). Those same pain points will be just as if not more present, no matter the powerplant, and the simplicity of electrical drivetrains will be offset by the high cost and short life of batteries (unless there's some revolution in battery tech on the horizon, which I certainly hope for, and is possible, but am not expecting to happen as a simple result of economies of scale). So the drivetrains may well last longer, but that's not what drives first-owners of cars to trade/sell for a newer model, as drivetrains already well outlast most first owners desire to keep them.
TrackerFF 5y ago
The thing with EV cars, at least here in Europe, is that their batteries are incredibly expensive - and any damage to the battery, or anything related to the battery, will cost so much that the vehicle is often just condemned. We actually have junkyards full of EV cars that are under 5 years old, because the battery or chassis got some damage, and it would cost $10k-$30k to replace.

heavyset_go 5y ago

> Just wait until electric cars hit the mainstream - those things are going to last forever in places like California. Their batteries sure won't.

elihu 5y ago
Depends on the technology and how well they're thermally managed. Lithium iron phosphate cells are starting to show up in lower-end EVs and those could last a very long time. Really, the thing with old batteries isn't so much that they degrade (though a few cars had problems with it like the early Nissan Leafs), but rather that the technology is getting better all the time, and even if degradation isn't a factor, a twenty-year-old battery will be based on twenty-year-old tech, whereas newer cars will be have more range, charge more quickly, and be lighter.

Zandikar 5y ago

Modern cars last a long time, regardless of the powerplant. Old cars having catastrophic mechanical failure doesn't drive ownership turnover - in fact the opposite is true for most vehicles, as it's easier and cheaper to address significant mechanical failure in say, an 80's Chevy pickup than a similar issues in 2010's chevy pickup. Turnover instead is primarily attributed to mounting maintenance/ownership costs that are primarily related to all the value-add features companies keep adding to keep up with joneses. In addition, "Catastrophic" Failures (eg Totalling) is much more prevalent not due to unreliability of ICE systems, but rather, the new safety standards that result in high replacement costs (crumple zones for example can turn even minor incidents into significant repair costs, even if it's not mechanically compromised). Those same pain points will be just as if not more present, no matter the powerplant, and the simplicity of electrical drivetrains will be offset by the high cost and short life of batteries (unless there's some revolution in battery tech on the horizon, which I certainly hope for, and is possible, but am not expecting to happen as a simple result of economies of scale). So the drivetrains may well last longer, but that's not what drives first-owners of cars to trade/sell for a newer model, as drivetrains already well outlast most first owners desire to keep them.

TrackerFF 5y ago

The thing with EV cars, at least here in Europe, is that their batteries are incredibly expensive - and any damage to the battery, or anything related to the battery, will cost so much that the vehicle is often just condemned. We actually have junkyards full of EV cars that are under 5 years old, because the battery or chassis got some damage, and it would cost $10k-$30k to replace.