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> I do not think that is what is going on but it is certainly a possibility. Very remote, of course. I agree and put in Bayesian terms it seems to me that the
by ncallaway 5y ago
> I do not think that is what is going on but it is certainly a possibility. Very remote, of course.
I agree and put in Bayesian terms it seems to me that the prior for “aliens are here, and are hiding from us, but are hiding badly” should be non-zero but very low.
The kind of evidence we have seen should just our priors upward very slightly, but has too many other (more likely) potential explanations to have a significant impact for me.
- dau 5y agoHow do you come to the conclusion that they are hiding badly? Assuming they are there and they are in fact hiding, I think they are pretty good at it. Or do you have reliable photo or video evidence that suggests otherwise? :-)
- boomboomsubban 5y agoThey don't come to that conclusion. They think the chance that extraterrestrial life could both travel to earth and be rubbish at hiding is very, very low
- sliken 5y agoHeh, hiding badly seems rather unlikely. A galaxy spanning race that can cross untold light years is not likely to make easy/simple/stupid mistakes often. However, a self replicating probe might well be monitoring the earth, and watching for various milestones (fire, wheels, radio, spread spectrum, nuclear, fusion, stealth, inter planetary probes, plasma drives, etc). Certainly many things could be monitored passively, but occasional active monitoring might be justified. Things like pestering military vehicles in relatively crowded seas (Off the coast of San Diego) to see what exactly we do when confronted with a unknown vehicle. What sensors do we use? How sophisticated are they? Do we risk the lives of fellow humans opening up on the unknown with multiple weapons?