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People have no intuition for the incredible bubble we live in, the historical uniqueness of it, and the immense work it takes to keep it alive. The living memo

People have no intuition for the incredible bubble we live in, the historical uniqueness of it, and the immense work it takes to keep it alive. The living memory of the post-WW2 order is fading and most people basically don't understand that we're living in that house, that it's very real, and that it takes maintenance. Peace isn't the absence of war, it's the balance of power, and the recognition that not all powers are the same. Without US relationship with Egypt, it would fall and with it the Suez, and they'd be at war with Israel very quickly. 'Real War'. Without US support of House of Saud and 5th fleet, Saudi Arabia and Iran would be probably at war. And that's just one region. It's complicated and there is no way 'not to play the game' as in a power vacuum it will definitely be total chaos - so we have to figure out how to balance the power in some reasonable way.

rapind 5y ago
The king would say “the peasants have no idea how good they have it”, and would be right in many ways, but is this the best we can do?
- jollybean 5y ago
  I would disagree with that analogy. Your neighbours with the biggest houses, that they built themselves, have a lot of tools and even a few weapons. They have a pretty good peace between them, and sometimes intervene in domestic disputes elsewhere. If they didn't patrol the roads then it would be way too dangerous to go out on them, and many of your neighbours would be in vendetta wars. The best thing you can do is act responsibly, and join the group of responsible acting neighbours. They frankly don't really have a lot of interest in patrolling the streets in general. It makes them feel good but it's really, really costly.
abhishekjha 5y ago
You shouldn’t have a problem once new players enter and want a share of that pie. Afterall its all good.
- jollybean 5y ago
  This is a misunderstanding. The 'new players' can only emerge with baseline security and they do not 'take' a 'piece of the pie' - they make it for themselves. Europe is not rich because it has 'natural resources' - it's rich because it has stability and it's organized: NATO/US Nuclear Umbrella + social and moral order, and institutions from liberal democracies, to education, to industry etc.. Poor nations are mostly that way because they are completely corrupt and have a hard time building standards, institutions and regular order - and / or - they can't have those because they have security problems, often which go hand in hand. Without that, money and equipment invested is squandered. Korea and Japan made very efficient use of post-war re-investment, because they knew what to do with the electricity grid, and how to put it to good use, and to maintain it. Rwanda - not so much. The only people trying to challenge the Post WW2 order are 1) toxic and corrupt states and 2) naive people among the proles, on reddit. There is definitely a 3rd grouping, with some degree of legitimacy, but they are more rare. The biggest group among them would be isolationist types. But usually they are not in good faith, usually they are just in group #1.

rapind 5y ago

The king would say “the peasants have no idea how good they have it”, and would be right in many ways, but is this the best we can do?

jollybean 5y ago
I would disagree with that analogy. Your neighbours with the biggest houses, that they built themselves, have a lot of tools and even a few weapons. They have a pretty good peace between them, and sometimes intervene in domestic disputes elsewhere. If they didn't patrol the roads then it would be way too dangerous to go out on them, and many of your neighbours would be in vendetta wars. The best thing you can do is act responsibly, and join the group of responsible acting neighbours. They frankly don't really have a lot of interest in patrolling the streets in general. It makes them feel good but it's really, really costly.

abhishekjha 5y ago

You shouldn’t have a problem once new players enter and want a share of that pie. Afterall its all good.

jollybean 5y ago
This is a misunderstanding. The 'new players' can only emerge with baseline security and they do not 'take' a 'piece of the pie' - they make it for themselves. Europe is not rich because it has 'natural resources' - it's rich because it has stability and it's organized: NATO/US Nuclear Umbrella + social and moral order, and institutions from liberal democracies, to education, to industry etc.. Poor nations are mostly that way because they are completely corrupt and have a hard time building standards, institutions and regular order - and / or - they can't have those because they have security problems, often which go hand in hand. Without that, money and equipment invested is squandered. Korea and Japan made very efficient use of post-war re-investment, because they knew what to do with the electricity grid, and how to put it to good use, and to maintain it. Rwanda - not so much. The only people trying to challenge the Post WW2 order are 1) toxic and corrupt states and 2) naive people among the proles, on reddit. There is definitely a 3rd grouping, with some degree of legitimacy, but they are more rare. The biggest group among them would be isolationist types. But usually they are not in good faith, usually they are just in group #1.