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>>He's got his money where his mouth is. Looking at his scion capital quarterly report, it seems he has a lot of his portfolio in puts (40%?) then the next 30%

>>He's got his money where his mouth is. Looking at his scion capital quarterly report, it seems he has a lot of his portfolio in puts (40%?) then the next 30% in calls then a mixed bag of stocks. https://whalewisdom.com/filer/scion-asset-management-llc#tabholdings_tab_link https://whalewisdom.com/filer/scion-asset-management-llc#tab... to me it seems he is more bearish on Tesla than the market? So it is hard to say he is against the entire market...? Judging by the gigantic position he has against them. Can you clarify what you mean here? Does he have other positions like puts on crypto?

ItsMonkk 5y ago
TSLA is a growth stock, and growth stocks have done extraordinarily well throughout CO-VID. To have a put on TSLA is to have a bet against growth. His TLT and TBT bets are the next largest piece of his portfolio and show what he's thinking. As for Bitcoin, he never said that it would cause a crash, merely that when the stock market does go down Bitcoin will go with it(because of it's reliance on leverage that will get called away) and the effect will be to wipe out all the kids and retail investors that have bet on it. How do you profit on Bitcoin crashing? As you recall, he specifically was worried in 2006 about the banks going under, and Bitcoin has that problem to a much larger degree. If you bet against Tether and Tether goes to 0, there's a good chance all coins go to 0 and you won't be able to receive your winnings. Sometimes the only winning move is not to play.
- OJFord 5y ago
  > How do you profit on Bitcoin crashing? Sell futures? (I'm not GP nor really disagreeing with anything else you said.)
  - gruez 5y ago
    Yeah, CME offers cash settled bitcoin futures, so it's not like you have to use a shady offshore exchange.
  - smabie 5y ago
    sell futures or swaps or buy puts. also, you could borrow btc and then sell it against stable coin collateral using various defi protocols.
- rualca 5y ago
  > TSLA is a growth stock, and growth stocks have done extraordinarily well throughout CO-VID. To have a put on TSLA is to have a bet against growth. This remark sounds very ignorant and miopic. Even with the "growth stock" interpretation, it's very hard to ignore the fact that Tesla's market share is shrinking with increasing competition in Europe and China, and on 2021Q1 Tesla reported $438M profit while recording $518M in revenue from sales of regulatory credits and $100M in Bitcoin sales. I understand the importance of the "growth stock" narrative. Even pyramid schemes are handsomely profitable to investors provided that the next guy is left holding the bag. However, as Burry stated quite clearly, Tesla's numbers are far from healthy and it's market valuation is not justifiable with a rational basis.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - ItsMonkk 5y ago
    I'll take that criticism. I'm much more focused on the bug discovery process that Burry goes through than the bug exploitation itself. My nuance on the actual trading side is much less developed.

ItsMonkk 5y ago

TSLA is a growth stock, and growth stocks have done extraordinarily well throughout CO-VID. To have a put on TSLA is to have a bet against growth. His TLT and TBT bets are the next largest piece of his portfolio and show what he's thinking. As for Bitcoin, he never said that it would cause a crash, merely that when the stock market does go down Bitcoin will go with it(because of it's reliance on leverage that will get called away) and the effect will be to wipe out all the kids and retail investors that have bet on it. How do you profit on Bitcoin crashing? As you recall, he specifically was worried in 2006 about the banks going under, and Bitcoin has that problem to a much larger degree. If you bet against Tether and Tether goes to 0, there's a good chance all coins go to 0 and you won't be able to receive your winnings. Sometimes the only winning move is not to play.

OJFord 5y ago
> How do you profit on Bitcoin crashing? Sell futures? (I'm not GP nor really disagreeing with anything else you said.)
- gruez 5y ago
  Yeah, CME offers cash settled bitcoin futures, so it's not like you have to use a shady offshore exchange.
- smabie 5y ago
  sell futures or swaps or buy puts. also, you could borrow btc and then sell it against stable coin collateral using various defi protocols.
rualca 5y ago
> TSLA is a growth stock, and growth stocks have done extraordinarily well throughout CO-VID. To have a put on TSLA is to have a bet against growth. This remark sounds very ignorant and miopic. Even with the "growth stock" interpretation, it's very hard to ignore the fact that Tesla's market share is shrinking with increasing competition in Europe and China, and on 2021Q1 Tesla reported $438M profit while recording $518M in revenue from sales of regulatory credits and $100M in Bitcoin sales. I understand the importance of the "growth stock" narrative. Even pyramid schemes are handsomely profitable to investors provided that the next guy is left holding the bag. However, as Burry stated quite clearly, Tesla's numbers are far from healthy and it's market valuation is not justifiable with a rational basis.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- ItsMonkk 5y ago
  I'll take that criticism. I'm much more focused on the bug discovery process that Burry goes through than the bug exploitation itself. My nuance on the actual trading side is much less developed.