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Let’s not forget the censorship of the lab leak hypothesis. A few months ago it was a racist theory that constituted thoughtcrime and couldn’t be mentioned, and

Let’s not forget the censorship of the lab leak hypothesis. A few months ago it was a racist theory that constituted thoughtcrime and couldn’t be mentioned, and now the mainstream thinking is that it’s the most likely explanation.

Wistar 5y ago
I remember it differently as not a "lab leak hypothesis" but a claim that the virus was not from nature but was a man-made virus, to wit: "I can present solid scientific evidence to our audience that this virus, COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 virus, actually is not from nature. It is a man-made virus created in the lab." — Dr. Li-Meng Yan on the Tucker Carlson show.
- blumomo 5y ago
  That could be what you call a „limited hangout“. You only admit what you can’t hide any longer. Firstly it was a no-go to claim it came from the lab. „It came from a wet market“ was the only truth you were allowed to claim without getting censored. Now that Fauci‘s emails are visible, it becomes more evident that the origin is a lab. Now you are only allowed to claim that it accidentally escaped from a lab. What’s next? Maybe we will see new evidence coming out that it was created and released on purpose. Let’s wait and see what we will be allowed to say then on social media.
  - emn13 5y ago
    Where exactly is this positive evidence it leaked from the Wuhan lab - and not just emails that considered the possibility it might have?
    - Wistar 5y ago
      Nowhere, man.
    - plebianRube 5y ago
      There is no 'smoking gun' but you will never see one without the fog of propaganda cast over it. https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/06/the-lab-leak-theory-inside-the-fight-to-uncover-covid-19s-origins https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/06/the-lab-leak-theory-...
- emn13 5y ago
  Exactly - the problem isn't the consideration of a lab leak as a possible source, it's the presentation of that theory embellished well beyond what's plausible without any evidence - and then suggesting it's not just a far out there possibility, but actually the most likely source. And all that when it was a convenient diversionary tactic - looking for a scapegoat. Let's not forget that not only is the lab leak theory to this day just one possibility, it's still not backed by much evidence, whereas many other viruses have jumped species before without needing a lab. Finally, even in the unlikely event it turns out to have leaked from the lab and we manage to get convincing evidence of that now, that doesn't actually make those claims last year any more defensible. It's not OK to spout wild claims without evidence - even though if you do so often enough, you'll get lucky sometimes. Even a broken clock is right twice a day, but that does not mean breaking clocks is a valid strategy for telling the time. And unless I'm missing something, it's just not plausible that fox news or mike pompeo or whoever had some secret evidence - if they had it, they would have shared it, somebody would have leaked it, or at the very least other corroborating sources would have appeared. None of that happened: ergo they were lying at least by exaggeration - and that's assuming they even believed the story to be at least plausible.
  - actually_a_dog 5y ago
    Exactly. Let's also not forget that for this virus to have escaped, there would have had to have been incredibly lax safety procedures. That doesn't mean that wasn't the case, just that we would have had trained researchers and technicians working with viruses similar to other viruses that have jumped species and caused serious disease under the equivalent of BSL-1 (i.e. no precautions). BSL-2 is required for procedures where a potentially human-infectious virus may be aerosolized. For the zoonotic leap hypothesis, all you need is for some people to be near some sick bats. Which one is simpler?
    - nicoburns 5y ago
      Coronaviruses were being studied in a BSL-4 lab in Wuhan. That is ~100 metres from the meat market which was supposedly the epicentre of the original outbreak. Theoretically the safety standards would be very high. But all it takes is one slip-up. And it wouldn't be the first time that has happened. Seems pretty simple to me. The zoonotic leap is definitely plausible too. But there you have to explain how the virus mutated to be infectious to humans. Whereas the lab is known to have intentionally modified the coronaviruses it was studying to be infectious to humans.
- nicoburns 5y ago
  There are really two separate lab leak hypotheses: 1. That it was made in the lab and accidentally released 2. That it was made in the lab and released intentionally as some kind of biowarfare or population control. (1) has been discussed as a definite possibility by credible scientists since day 1 (and although it's true that the mainstream media didn't really pick up on it, I don't see much evidence that they intentionally buried it) (2) is straying very heavily into conspiracy theory territory.
  - tomp 5y ago
    Nobody ever seriously discussed (1). The best (and so obvious) rebuttal to (2) is "If COVID is a weapon, it sucks." The only time (2) comes up is when people want to censor (1) so they twist it into something similar to (2).
prof-dr-ir 5y ago
I have downvoted you, because I believe that it is a complete fabrication to claim that the mainstream thinking is "that it's the most likely explanation". As far as I can tell, most experts have settled on "unlikely but possible". I would be happy to "undown" you if you can provide evidence.
- stephc_int13 5y ago
  I don't think we can say that this question is settled yet. The origin of SARS-COV2 is still a mystery and there is not enough evidence to support any explanation so far. The initial violent pushback and recent relaxation around the lab leak hypothesis is suspicious, but it might be unrelated to the truth.
- beervirus 5y ago
  Now that we’re allowed to talk about it, it’s certainly the most likely in the Occam’s Razor sense.
benmw333 5y ago
Coronavirus origins, China = racism. South African variant = science.
dang 5y ago
We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27562573 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27562573.
- beervirus 5y ago
  Why?
  - dang 5y ago
    It veered off topic. I agree that there's a point of connection between the media/tech/institutional treatment of that question and this one, but arguing about who said "man made" vs. whatever a year ago is way into a different field of weeds. Your comment bears some responsibility for that, btw. If you had posted something less flamebaity and more thoughtful, the subthread would probably have been better. https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sort=byDate&type=comment&query=%22expected%20value%22%20by:dang https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sor...
deleted 5y ago
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Wistar 5y ago

I remember it differently as not a "lab leak hypothesis" but a claim that the virus was not from nature but was a man-made virus, to wit: "I can present solid scientific evidence to our audience that this virus, COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 virus, actually is not from nature. It is a man-made virus created in the lab." — Dr. Li-Meng Yan on the Tucker Carlson show.

blumomo 5y ago
That could be what you call a „limited hangout“. You only admit what you can’t hide any longer. Firstly it was a no-go to claim it came from the lab. „It came from a wet market“ was the only truth you were allowed to claim without getting censored. Now that Fauci‘s emails are visible, it becomes more evident that the origin is a lab. Now you are only allowed to claim that it accidentally escaped from a lab. What’s next? Maybe we will see new evidence coming out that it was created and released on purpose. Let’s wait and see what we will be allowed to say then on social media.
- emn13 5y ago
  Where exactly is this positive evidence it leaked from the Wuhan lab - and not just emails that considered the possibility it might have?
  - Wistar 5y ago
    Nowhere, man.
  - plebianRube 5y ago
    There is no 'smoking gun' but you will never see one without the fog of propaganda cast over it. https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/06/the-lab-leak-theory-inside-the-fight-to-uncover-covid-19s-origins https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/06/the-lab-leak-theory-...
emn13 5y ago
Exactly - the problem isn't the consideration of a lab leak as a possible source, it's the presentation of that theory embellished well beyond what's plausible without any evidence - and then suggesting it's not just a far out there possibility, but actually the most likely source. And all that when it was a convenient diversionary tactic - looking for a scapegoat. Let's not forget that not only is the lab leak theory to this day just one possibility, it's still not backed by much evidence, whereas many other viruses have jumped species before without needing a lab. Finally, even in the unlikely event it turns out to have leaked from the lab and we manage to get convincing evidence of that now, that doesn't actually make those claims last year any more defensible. It's not OK to spout wild claims without evidence - even though if you do so often enough, you'll get lucky sometimes. Even a broken clock is right twice a day, but that does not mean breaking clocks is a valid strategy for telling the time. And unless I'm missing something, it's just not plausible that fox news or mike pompeo or whoever had some secret evidence - if they had it, they would have shared it, somebody would have leaked it, or at the very least other corroborating sources would have appeared. None of that happened: ergo they were lying at least by exaggeration - and that's assuming they even believed the story to be at least plausible.
- actually_a_dog 5y ago
  Exactly. Let's also not forget that for this virus to have escaped, there would have had to have been incredibly lax safety procedures. That doesn't mean that wasn't the case, just that we would have had trained researchers and technicians working with viruses similar to other viruses that have jumped species and caused serious disease under the equivalent of BSL-1 (i.e. no precautions). BSL-2 is required for procedures where a potentially human-infectious virus may be aerosolized. For the zoonotic leap hypothesis, all you need is for some people to be near some sick bats. Which one is simpler?
  - nicoburns 5y ago
    Coronaviruses were being studied in a BSL-4 lab in Wuhan. That is ~100 metres from the meat market which was supposedly the epicentre of the original outbreak. Theoretically the safety standards would be very high. But all it takes is one slip-up. And it wouldn't be the first time that has happened. Seems pretty simple to me. The zoonotic leap is definitely plausible too. But there you have to explain how the virus mutated to be infectious to humans. Whereas the lab is known to have intentionally modified the coronaviruses it was studying to be infectious to humans.
nicoburns 5y ago
There are really two separate lab leak hypotheses: 1. That it was made in the lab and accidentally released 2. That it was made in the lab and released intentionally as some kind of biowarfare or population control. (1) has been discussed as a definite possibility by credible scientists since day 1 (and although it's true that the mainstream media didn't really pick up on it, I don't see much evidence that they intentionally buried it) (2) is straying very heavily into conspiracy theory territory.
- tomp 5y ago
  Nobody ever seriously discussed (1). The best (and so obvious) rebuttal to (2) is "If COVID is a weapon, it sucks." The only time (2) comes up is when people want to censor (1) so they twist it into something similar to (2).

prof-dr-ir 5y ago

I have downvoted you, because I believe that it is a complete fabrication to claim that the mainstream thinking is "that it's the most likely explanation". As far as I can tell, most experts have settled on "unlikely but possible". I would be happy to "undown" you if you can provide evidence.

stephc_int13 5y ago
I don't think we can say that this question is settled yet. The origin of SARS-COV2 is still a mystery and there is not enough evidence to support any explanation so far. The initial violent pushback and recent relaxation around the lab leak hypothesis is suspicious, but it might be unrelated to the truth.
beervirus 5y ago
Now that we’re allowed to talk about it, it’s certainly the most likely in the Occam’s Razor sense.

benmw333 5y ago

Coronavirus origins, China = racism. South African variant = science.

dang 5y ago

We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27562573 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27562573.

beervirus 5y ago
Why?
- dang 5y ago
  It veered off topic. I agree that there's a point of connection between the media/tech/institutional treatment of that question and this one, but arguing about who said "man made" vs. whatever a year ago is way into a different field of weeds. Your comment bears some responsibility for that, btw. If you had posted something less flamebaity and more thoughtful, the subthread would probably have been better. https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sort=byDate&type=comment&query=%22expected%20value%22%20by:dang https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sor...

deleted 5y ago

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