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Soviet Union tried that with semiconductor industry in 1970s and 1980s. They managed to clone 8086 CPU but failed with 286 even after Soviet intelligence had st

Soviet Union tried that with semiconductor industry in 1970s and 1980s. They managed to clone 8086 CPU but failed with 286 even after Soviet intelligence had stolen detailed blueprints for Intel manufacturing processes. Similarly Russia failed to create anything close to F22 engines. What is important is manufacturing culture. Without that one can clone a factory, but it will not help with the next generational process. And it is known how to build such culture in relatively short time frame, culture. Just look at Japan, South Korea or Taiwan.

jollybean 5y ago
Good point, but 'manufacturing culture' is also dependent on the prevailing 'regular culture' and also 'conditions'. Japan, SK and Taiwan are the kinds of places where you could convince a lot of people to 'do this and that for the good of the country' - especially since they were flat on their backs and rebuilding from nothing, at the same time facing existential external powers. 'Post-War' was a quasi-authoritarian national strategy almost as much as the actual war or preparation for it was. In North America especially, we live in a 'Safe Bubble' we don't really have the sense of existential angst that a place like Korea might have, what with a direct record of thousands of years of war and tumult from any number of neighbours which still exist today. Even in W. Europe the living memory of that stuff seems rather fargone.
SkyMarshal 5y ago
>And it is known how to build such culture in relatively short time frame, culture. Just look at Japan, South Korea or Taiwan. Indeed. To expand on that, there is an economist Richard Werner [1] who has studied that process in depth. The TLDR is that new money/credit creation needs to be allocated primarily toward production and innovation, vs consumption or asset speculation (the three things money can be allocated toward). In post-WWII Japan this process was called "Window Guidance" [2], an informal system by which the BoJ directed the banking system to fund industrial development. The Asian Tigers and then China all copied the model in their development program too, so it's clearly portable, but interestingly remains informal. You would think an effective model like this would be formalized into law at some point. [1]:https://professorwerner.org/; https://professorwerner.org/; https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Richard-Werner https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Richard-Werner [2]:http://princesoftheyen.com/central-bank-money-creation/ http://princesoftheyen.com/central-bank-money-creation/ (scroll down to Window Guidance section).
- rasz 5y ago
  Another thing China and Japan rapid growth had in common were foreign currency quotas, ownership limits, central planning and indirect subsidies. "MITI'S SUCCESSES AND FAILURES IN CONTROLLING JAPAN'S TECHNOLOGY IMPORTS" https://www.jstor.org/stable/43294946 https://www.jstor.org/stable/43294946
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  Isn't it basically official in China though?
cartoonworld 5y ago
Its interesting to me that while in the US, we were spearheading the computer revolution with our cutting edge semiconductor industry, Soviet rocket designs remain pretty much unsurpassed to this day.[0] There's a cool documentary called "The Engines That Came In From The Cold" (available on youtube[1]) and if you have a Netflix subscription, I recommend the documentary "Cosmodrome" (2008)[2] which is about the history of the Soviet space program and these engines. I'm sure you're aware that the US Space program has been reliant on ex-Soviet heavy lift vehicles for decades more or less. Especially, since the Space Shuttle program was canned, if it weren't for SpaceX, the Russian lift would be the only bus on the route, aside from NRO launches and other um..stuff Indeed, the Soviets had a completely parallel semiconductor and electronics industry as well. I don't know for certain but it was undoubtedly lagging western developments by a large margin. Nonetheless, the Soviets had some very interesting developments of their own, such as the Kola superdeep borehole. It is all terribly fascinating. [0] https://sputniknews.com/russia/201704081052440303-russia-rockets-engines/ https://sputniknews.com/russia/201704081052440303-russia-roc... [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMbl_ofF3AM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMbl_ofF3AM [2] https://letterboxd.com/film/cosmodrome/ https://letterboxd.com/film/cosmodrome/
- cwilkes 5y ago
  > Soviet rocket designs remain pretty much unsurpassed to this day Well except for SpaceX’s reusable rockets which are the future. Im sure there will be some use for current Soviet rockets in the future but unless they come out with something to compete with Elon’s they are going to be left behind.
  - cartoonworld 5y ago
    Oh, yes. Don't get me wrong -- it's over! I don't disagree with you either, it's another example of how misplaced development priorities can look like winning big until the handkerchief reveals a fat, dead rabbit. edit: the rabbit stinks, too.
    - sudosysgen 5y ago

jollybean 5y ago

Good point, but 'manufacturing culture' is also dependent on the prevailing 'regular culture' and also 'conditions'. Japan, SK and Taiwan are the kinds of places where you could convince a lot of people to 'do this and that for the good of the country' - especially since they were flat on their backs and rebuilding from nothing, at the same time facing existential external powers. 'Post-War' was a quasi-authoritarian national strategy almost as much as the actual war or preparation for it was. In North America especially, we live in a 'Safe Bubble' we don't really have the sense of existential angst that a place like Korea might have, what with a direct record of thousands of years of war and tumult from any number of neighbours which still exist today. Even in W. Europe the living memory of that stuff seems rather fargone.

SkyMarshal 5y ago

>And it is known how to build such culture in relatively short time frame, culture. Just look at Japan, South Korea or Taiwan. Indeed. To expand on that, there is an economist Richard Werner [1] who has studied that process in depth. The TLDR is that new money/credit creation needs to be allocated primarily toward production and innovation, vs consumption or asset speculation (the three things money can be allocated toward). In post-WWII Japan this process was called "Window Guidance" [2], an informal system by which the BoJ directed the banking system to fund industrial development. The Asian Tigers and then China all copied the model in their development program too, so it's clearly portable, but interestingly remains informal. You would think an effective model like this would be formalized into law at some point. [1]:https://professorwerner.org/; https://professorwerner.org/; https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Richard-Werner https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Richard-Werner [2]:http://princesoftheyen.com/central-bank-money-creation/ http://princesoftheyen.com/central-bank-money-creation/ (scroll down to Window Guidance section).

rasz 5y ago
Another thing China and Japan rapid growth had in common were foreign currency quotas, ownership limits, central planning and indirect subsidies. "MITI'S SUCCESSES AND FAILURES IN CONTROLLING JAPAN'S TECHNOLOGY IMPORTS" https://www.jstor.org/stable/43294946 https://www.jstor.org/stable/43294946
sudosysgen 5y ago
Isn't it basically official in China though?

cartoonworld 5y ago

Its interesting to me that while in the US, we were spearheading the computer revolution with our cutting edge semiconductor industry, Soviet rocket designs remain pretty much unsurpassed to this day.[0] There's a cool documentary called "The Engines That Came In From The Cold" (available on youtube[1]) and if you have a Netflix subscription, I recommend the documentary "Cosmodrome" (2008)[2] which is about the history of the Soviet space program and these engines. I'm sure you're aware that the US Space program has been reliant on ex-Soviet heavy lift vehicles for decades more or less. Especially, since the Space Shuttle program was canned, if it weren't for SpaceX, the Russian lift would be the only bus on the route, aside from NRO launches and other um..stuff Indeed, the Soviets had a completely parallel semiconductor and electronics industry as well. I don't know for certain but it was undoubtedly lagging western developments by a large margin. Nonetheless, the Soviets had some very interesting developments of their own, such as the Kola superdeep borehole. It is all terribly fascinating. [0] https://sputniknews.com/russia/201704081052440303-russia-rockets-engines/ https://sputniknews.com/russia/201704081052440303-russia-roc... [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMbl_ofF3AM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMbl_ofF3AM [2] https://letterboxd.com/film/cosmodrome/ https://letterboxd.com/film/cosmodrome/

cwilkes 5y ago
> Soviet rocket designs remain pretty much unsurpassed to this day Well except for SpaceX’s reusable rockets which are the future. Im sure there will be some use for current Soviet rockets in the future but unless they come out with something to compete with Elon’s they are going to be left behind.
- cartoonworld 5y ago
  Oh, yes. Don't get me wrong -- it's over! I don't disagree with you either, it's another example of how misplaced development priorities can look like winning big until the handkerchief reveals a fat, dead rabbit. edit: the rabbit stinks, too.
  - sudosysgen 5y ago