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>The countries that are going to be hurt by these US semiconductor subsidies are going be Taiwan, South Korea, Japan ... not China. I think I may agree here, a

>The countries that are going to be hurt by these US semiconductor subsidies are going be Taiwan, South Korea, Japan ... not China. I think I may agree here, and it gets complicated -- fast. I suspect you might be referring to larger parts like CPUs, but you should take this excellent opportunity to investigate china's semi industry a bit. China has a very interesting local manufacturing economy of parts and suppliers that is mostly invisible to outside observers. It's fascinating that in China, there is a totally divergent supply chain to support the cheap consumer electronics industry. Granted, it isn't CPUs. However, they sure are cranking out semis, its just that they never leave China but for inside of another product. The datasheets are all in Chinese, they aren't exported, they serve to support China's unique manufacturing culture. Here's a previous submission that delves into this: The “terrible” 3 cent MCU – a short survey of sub $0.10 microcontrollers https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20686727 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20686727 You can also check out Dave from EEVblog's 3-cent microcontroller[0] video about the same series of dirt cheap micros. [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VYhAGnsnO7w https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VYhAGnsnO7w

throwaway4good 5y ago
This stuff (the 10 cents MCUs) is fantastic but probably an example of something that will never again be produced in the US or Europe. I was refering to the various statistics you can find on this, and I think they count by monetary value. Because the US, Taiwan, and South Korea sits on the expensive high-value add stuff, they weigh the most. China has been entering the industry from the lower end, but now after the tech war, they are forced into the higher end, even if it is not economical viable. So together with this made-in-america policy, traditional allies like South Korea and Taiwan are being squeezed. I personally believe that the tech war will deescalate drastically at some point, but if this continues we are going to end up with a complete parallel world of semiconductors all in Chinese.
- cartoonworld 5y ago
  Maybe, but the kind of fabs we have left in the USA are running older process nodes and I don't really see why they can't crank out lower performance MCUs and integrated parts indefinitely. There's probably going to be a kind of sweet spot that develops for fab performance, it may very well be the case that most things don't need a 75nm node process, and it will be possible to squeeze a ton of value out between 100-500. The 10-cent mcu surely doesn't need great RF and thermal performance. In my mind, the largest problem is where the integrators and product manufacturers are and not whether we can churn out silicon in the US.
  - throwaway4good 5y ago
    It is not for technical reasons, but the price point of 10 cents, that is not sustainable in the US. And as you kinda said: The customers are all in China.
    - cartoonworld 5y ago
      If the US process nodes are older, larger node size, as we said and production is economically unsustainable as US production, but the customers are all in China, how is the tax credit for domestic US fab going to hurt Taiwan, Japan, Korea? Wouldn't it simply help bootstrap domestic production and make the economics more attractive?

throwaway4good 5y ago

This stuff (the 10 cents MCUs) is fantastic but probably an example of something that will never again be produced in the US or Europe. I was refering to the various statistics you can find on this, and I think they count by monetary value. Because the US, Taiwan, and South Korea sits on the expensive high-value add stuff, they weigh the most. China has been entering the industry from the lower end, but now after the tech war, they are forced into the higher end, even if it is not economical viable. So together with this made-in-america policy, traditional allies like South Korea and Taiwan are being squeezed. I personally believe that the tech war will deescalate drastically at some point, but if this continues we are going to end up with a complete parallel world of semiconductors all in Chinese.

cartoonworld 5y ago
Maybe, but the kind of fabs we have left in the USA are running older process nodes and I don't really see why they can't crank out lower performance MCUs and integrated parts indefinitely. There's probably going to be a kind of sweet spot that develops for fab performance, it may very well be the case that most things don't need a 75nm node process, and it will be possible to squeeze a ton of value out between 100-500. The 10-cent mcu surely doesn't need great RF and thermal performance. In my mind, the largest problem is where the integrators and product manufacturers are and not whether we can churn out silicon in the US.
- throwaway4good 5y ago
  It is not for technical reasons, but the price point of 10 cents, that is not sustainable in the US. And as you kinda said: The customers are all in China.
  - cartoonworld 5y ago
    If the US process nodes are older, larger node size, as we said and production is economically unsustainable as US production, but the customers are all in China, how is the tax credit for domestic US fab going to hurt Taiwan, Japan, Korea? Wouldn't it simply help bootstrap domestic production and make the economics more attractive?