The paper which everyone linked to when the discussion was going on now 404s, so here is a new link: https://ncatlab.org/nlab/files/why_abc_is_still_a_conjectur

The paper which everyone linked to when the discussion was going on now 404s, so here is a new link: https://ncatlab.org/nlab/files/why_abc_is_still_a_conjecture.pdf https://ncatlab.org/nlab/files/why_abc_is_still_a_conjecture... The point in the proof where scholze and stix show it fails is “IUTT-3, Corollary 3.12”