Taiwan is one of the most important allies the US has against China. I think that a straight-up bombing/invasion of Taiwan would be met with a massive naval res

Taiwan is one of the most important allies the US has against China. I think that a straight-up bombing/invasion of Taiwan would be met with a massive naval response from the 7th fleet (pretty much total war, short of nuclear). China is still at least a decade away from naval superiority, so I don’t see why they would tempt fate. They’ll simply continue their buildup in the South China Sea, and hope that the US in the meantime weakens or loses interest for political reasons.