3 ms·
It's like rolling 2d6 for the weather each year - 2, 3, 4, 5 is a cool summer, 6-8 is human comfortable normal and most likely, 9-12 is hotter or drier than nor
by fencepost 5y ago
It's like rolling 2d6 for the weather each year - 2, 3, 4, 5 is a cool summer, 6-8 is human comfortable normal and most likely, 9-12 is hotter or drier than normal.
Oh, and every half degree C of warming adds a pip to each side of one of the dice. 1 degree of warming? Each of those dice is now 2-7 not 1-6. 1.5 C? Now there's a 2-7 and a 3-8. Doesn't change that "6-8 is comfortable" though.
Edit: I noticed but blew past the dice mention in the article, and what I'm describing is different. Dr Hayhoe describes it as replacing sides with additional 6s, but that's different. What we're experiencing is a gradual change of where the center point of the distribution curve is, but without a corresponding change in the values at which humans are comfortable (or even able to live, look up "wet bulb" in the context of climate change).
Edit2: if what gets you massive heat waves are rolls of 12 or higher, adding a pip means there are now more ways to get there - (6,6) but also (5,7) and (6,7). Adding yet another pip would mean even more ways, along with the corresponding reduction in ways to get the bottom of the previous range.
- tolbish 5y agoThe article uses that exact analogy.
- bruce343434 5y agoI've noticed a trend on HN were a commenter will literally take something verbatim from the article, or maybe put it in their own words, and farm a bunch of votes.
- paulcole 5y agoI do this because the market for karma-rich HN accounts is pretty vibrant. DM if interested in making an offer.
- bruce343434 5y agoWho would possibly want to buy such an esoteric thing?
- paulcole 5y ago;)
- fencepost 5y agoDifferent and intentionally so, comment edited with more reasoning.