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I highly doubt they'd get involved at that scale. You're talking about a major conflict. One in particular the US would not like to get involved in. The US neve

I highly doubt they'd get involved at that scale. You're talking about a major conflict. One in particular the US would not like to get involved in. The US never even did that with Russia. What makes you think the US would protect Taiwan? US military strategy for the allied Asian countries has always been "treat them as a buffer" and hasn't changed. If they got involved it would be an international incident seeing as two major nuclear powers are at war. There would enumerable politicians also hesitant to instigate that conflict. The US sat by while Britain was being invaded in WW2 and needed ridiculous political cozying up to even get troops over to the front in WWI. Why would they stick their necks out for Taiwan?

jakeinspace 5y ago
Taiwan is one of the most important allies the US has against China. I think that a straight-up bombing/invasion of Taiwan would be met with a massive naval response from the 7th fleet (pretty much total war, short of nuclear). China is still at least a decade away from naval superiority, so I don’t see why they would tempt fate. They’ll simply continue their buildup in the South China Sea, and hope that the US in the meantime weakens or loses interest for political reasons.
cycrutchfield 5y ago
> US military strategy for the allied Asian countries has always been "treat them as a buffer" Is that why there are so many bases and troops in South Korea and Japan? Any invasion of either of those two countries would likely trigger an instant war with the US.
ericmay 5y ago
Because the U.S. of 2021 is a vastly different country on the international stage than it was in 1939, let alone 1916. The U.S. barely had standing armies for either of those wars and a highly no-involvement mindset that came directly from the sentiments of the American population. Flash forward to today. Why do you think the U.S. has ~ a dozen aircraft carriers if not to defend its interests? The U.S. would absolutely go to war with China over Taiwan. For better or worse. Ground troops? Highly unlikely. Air and naval assets? Yea no doubt about that. The U.S. interactions with the Soviet Union are interesting but it’s just not quite the same. Had the Soviet Union attacked, directly, a key U.S. ally then the U.S. might have simply retaliated with nuclear weapons. Not worth the risk. There isn’t a sense that this is how a war with China would progress. A lot has changed. But overall, there won’t be a war unless something catastrophic happens to Chinese leadership (like they get a real Hitler type of figure), because they’re not stupid and the status quo works fine for everyone, despite the rhetoric.
- dzonga 5y ago
  what was the reason for China to get nukes ? Because at one time, they wanted to take over TW and got threated by nukes by the USA. Now both countries have nukes and large armies. With China having geographic advantage. So yeah, US would likely not come to the defence of TW. It's a fantasy to think the US would defend TW because they're both democracies. US can easily change it's position and say it's an internal matter when shit hits the fan.
  - ericmay 5y ago
    Yet here we are. The U.S. has fleets, airbases, a defense pact with Taiwan, and regularly sells Taiwan weapons. But the U.S. won’t defend Taiwan because China has nukes? Ok how about China won’t attack Taiwan because the U.S. has nukes? And you’re severely oversimplifying the entire interaction. China has geographic advantage to do what exactly? Fly planes to Taiwan? Not with U.S. forces nearby. Land troops? Good luck with that. Bombard the island with ships? Well that’s why the U.S. fleet is there. Fortunately all of this is saber rattling. Nobody not China, Taiwan, or the U.S. cares to change the status quo. The U.S. gets to maintain Taiwan as is. The CCP has a boogeyman they can use. And Taiwan gets to do business with everyone.
    - MeinBlutIstBlau 5y ago
      The US won't defend Taiwan because it has absolutely no benefit to them. All the talk of defending is purely for show. When it hits the fan, the US will stay out of the way. More likely during a Democrat administration as well. The US is done with interfering in Asian conflicts over communism. China knows it too and they're gonna make a move while the whole of the US's industry is there still. The US solely supplies Taiwan to keep them technologically up to date so that they can mount a reasonable defense. But with almost all 1st world nations universally not acknowledging Taiwan's sovereignty, you'll be hard pressed to see any bureaucrat NOT turning a blind eye but sending out a measly sanction and move some manufacturing home.
      - ericmay 5y ago

jakeinspace 5y ago

Taiwan is one of the most important allies the US has against China. I think that a straight-up bombing/invasion of Taiwan would be met with a massive naval response from the 7th fleet (pretty much total war, short of nuclear). China is still at least a decade away from naval superiority, so I don’t see why they would tempt fate. They’ll simply continue their buildup in the South China Sea, and hope that the US in the meantime weakens or loses interest for political reasons.

cycrutchfield 5y ago

> US military strategy for the allied Asian countries has always been "treat them as a buffer" Is that why there are so many bases and troops in South Korea and Japan? Any invasion of either of those two countries would likely trigger an instant war with the US.

ericmay 5y ago

Because the U.S. of 2021 is a vastly different country on the international stage than it was in 1939, let alone 1916. The U.S. barely had standing armies for either of those wars and a highly no-involvement mindset that came directly from the sentiments of the American population. Flash forward to today. Why do you think the U.S. has ~ a dozen aircraft carriers if not to defend its interests? The U.S. would absolutely go to war with China over Taiwan. For better or worse. Ground troops? Highly unlikely. Air and naval assets? Yea no doubt about that. The U.S. interactions with the Soviet Union are interesting but it’s just not quite the same. Had the Soviet Union attacked, directly, a key U.S. ally then the U.S. might have simply retaliated with nuclear weapons. Not worth the risk. There isn’t a sense that this is how a war with China would progress. A lot has changed. But overall, there won’t be a war unless something catastrophic happens to Chinese leadership (like they get a real Hitler type of figure), because they’re not stupid and the status quo works fine for everyone, despite the rhetoric.

dzonga 5y ago
what was the reason for China to get nukes ? Because at one time, they wanted to take over TW and got threated by nukes by the USA. Now both countries have nukes and large armies. With China having geographic advantage. So yeah, US would likely not come to the defence of TW. It's a fantasy to think the US would defend TW because they're both democracies. US can easily change it's position and say it's an internal matter when shit hits the fan.
- ericmay 5y ago
  Yet here we are. The U.S. has fleets, airbases, a defense pact with Taiwan, and regularly sells Taiwan weapons. But the U.S. won’t defend Taiwan because China has nukes? Ok how about China won’t attack Taiwan because the U.S. has nukes? And you’re severely oversimplifying the entire interaction. China has geographic advantage to do what exactly? Fly planes to Taiwan? Not with U.S. forces nearby. Land troops? Good luck with that. Bombard the island with ships? Well that’s why the U.S. fleet is there. Fortunately all of this is saber rattling. Nobody not China, Taiwan, or the U.S. cares to change the status quo. The U.S. gets to maintain Taiwan as is. The CCP has a boogeyman they can use. And Taiwan gets to do business with everyone.
  - MeinBlutIstBlau 5y ago
    The US won't defend Taiwan because it has absolutely no benefit to them. All the talk of defending is purely for show. When it hits the fan, the US will stay out of the way. More likely during a Democrat administration as well. The US is done with interfering in Asian conflicts over communism. China knows it too and they're gonna make a move while the whole of the US's industry is there still. The US solely supplies Taiwan to keep them technologically up to date so that they can mount a reasonable defense. But with almost all 1st world nations universally not acknowledging Taiwan's sovereignty, you'll be hard pressed to see any bureaucrat NOT turning a blind eye but sending out a measly sanction and move some manufacturing home.
    - ericmay 5y ago