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That's not true at all. We buy and use their oil, we supply them weapons etc. All that we need to do is to make sure that it's clear to our politician that such

That's not true at all. We buy and use their oil, we supply them weapons etc. All that we need to do is to make sure that it's clear to our politician that such things matter to Americans. I'm just not sure that's the case though.

underseacables 5y ago
You make an excellent point: What WOULD happen if we stopped buying oil from Saudi Arabia, and slapped an 80% tariff on all Chinese made goods? Would these regimes change their ways, or begin a major pivot away from America? I’ve always been fascinated by the friendship between China and the Middle East. No pesky human rights to worry about, just the flow of oil and money is opposite directions.
- gerash 5y ago
  Are you implying that US worries about human rights when Saudi Arabia is the ally?
- awb 5y ago
  There are countless ways for those countries to retaliate: war, terrorism, cyber attacks, disinformation campaigns, corporate or political espionage, releasing state secrets, stoking geopolitical tensions, creating anti-US coalitions, etc. Not saying that punitive actions can’t be effective, but the US is still vulnerable to some forms of retaliation, especially if get initial action is as sudden and dramatic as the ones you describe.
  - baybal2 5y ago
    > war, terrorism, cyber attacks, disinformation campaigns, corporate or political espionage, releasing state secrets, stoking geopolitical tensions, creating anti-US coalitions, etc. You just listed every thing what The New Axis has done in the previous decade.
- peytn 5y ago
  Saudi oil: nothing would happen. It’s a commodity. They’d sell their oil at market price minus epsilon. Regime would be fine. China tariff: they’d devalue the yuan. They already have capital controls that keep money from leaving the country. Regime would be fine. At the end of the day, might as well trade with them for our own benefit.
- nyokodo 5y ago
  > Would these regimes change their ways, or begin a major pivot away from America? Pivot to whom? China needs a large population of consumers. Besides the US they have their choice of countries full of young poor people, countries full of thrifty old people, and countries with consumers that are too small. They could drop the US if they’re willing to have a massive financial contraction. The US holds the ultimate trump card too, we need them less and less, and we can remove all shipping security guarantees for Chinese goods and watch their international trade collapse. It’s hard to fund influence campaigns when your economic house of cards crumbles around you.
  - monocasa 5y ago
    The China envisioned in Made in China 2025 already has access to a large population of consumers: the Chinese population. And the whole point of the Belt and Road initiative and their aircraft carrier program is to remove dependence on the US backed shipping security apparatus.
    - nyokodo 5y ago
      > The China envisioned in Made in China 2025 already has access to a large population of consumers: the Chinese population. Not for long. The Chinese population is aging incredibly rapidly. Younger Chinese who could contribute to a stable consumer base will instead be crushed attempting to support the accelerating number in older generations retiring.
      - monocasa 5y ago
        Older Chinese are still consumers, they'll bog down younger Chinese no more than US consumers will. It's not like US consumers are providing anything other than capital and a market as it stands. And a transition to higher end products and associated manufacturing means less low end workers (and less workers overall) needed to make that happen.
        nyokodo 5y ago
hulitu 5y ago
You no underestand. They are our friends.
corty 5y ago
Won't work, Afghanistan has no (legal) exports to speak of, and still there is the taliban gaining power. Iran and North Korea are hindered by very strict sanctions, yet their governments aren't any better. War might work, if at least some larger part of the population wants change, like in Iraq. Sanctions didn't ever work.
- farseer 5y ago
  Sanctions on Iraq did work, Saddam was contained. Might even have been swept away in the Arab spring later on. Unfortunately a bunch of religious fanatics invaded Iraq using a false pretense because God wanted them to. These fanatics didn't believe in diplomacy. After overthrowing the Taliban and the Baathists, they spurned all hopes of a negotiated peace and tried to wipe their foes off the map and remake the region in their own image. The defeated Baathist army was dismantled, the Taliban remnants hunted instead of negotiated with. Even the spurned Iraninans would have de-denuclearized out of fear in 2003 but why settle for that when you can have it all with regime change? And now here we are debating the evil of these once vanquished foes...
  - corty 5y ago
    Saddam Hussein was contained regarding neighboring states. As to atrocities towards the Iraqi people, sanctions and loosing the wars just put those into full gear, because Hussein had to quell the brewing rebellion. So you are right, sanctions may work in preventing a war. But they do nothing beneficial for the internal workings of a country, like executing teens for protesting in the OP.
starik36 5y ago
> We buy and use their oil We actually buy a very small amount these days. US is a net exporter. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRIMUSSA2&f=M https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M...
- sschueller 5y ago
  It's not about the oil being purchased by the US but that most oil is traded in USD and not some other currency.
  - nl 5y ago
    That seems an entirely different thing. Most international trade is denominated in USD, often even when trade is between two non-US companies.
nyokodo 5y ago
> We buy and use their oil Although that is true, the US imports less and less oil from Saudi. In fact, it’s been dropping steeply since shale oil became cheaper in 2014 and we haven’t imported less from Saudi since the oil glut of the mid-1980s.[1] I don’t think the US stopping Saudi oil imports is going to worry them as China is their major market now and China is another repressive regime. We should stop protecting their shipping though as we do for the entire globe still. 1: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRIMUSSA2&f=M https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M...
- adaml_623 5y ago
  How much oil does the US buy from Iran? I think actual embargoes make a difference.
  - nyokodo 5y ago
    > How much oil does the US buy from Iran? I think actual embargoes make a difference. Iran is still a brutal repressive regime. Sanctions make it more difficult for Iran to gain and project power but don’t stop them from committing horrific crimes against minorities and generally innocent Iranians.
    - srean 5y ago
      > Iran is still a brutal repressive regime Whatever it is now, it has been brought in to existence by US (CIA) intervention
      - mc32 5y ago
        I think that’s simplistic. The CIA (not saying they did stand up things) tried the opposite and supported a failing regime that was more open but did little for the lower classes so the revolutionaries came in took over and showed the previous regime how to really be tyrannical. Most Iranians would depose the current leadership if they had free elections, so it’s not as if the population wants them, but like China, and North Korea only one party can have legitimate candidates and they have the guns.

underseacables 5y ago

You make an excellent point: What WOULD happen if we stopped buying oil from Saudi Arabia, and slapped an 80% tariff on all Chinese made goods? Would these regimes change their ways, or begin a major pivot away from America? I’ve always been fascinated by the friendship between China and the Middle East. No pesky human rights to worry about, just the flow of oil and money is opposite directions.

gerash 5y ago
Are you implying that US worries about human rights when Saudi Arabia is the ally?
awb 5y ago
There are countless ways for those countries to retaliate: war, terrorism, cyber attacks, disinformation campaigns, corporate or political espionage, releasing state secrets, stoking geopolitical tensions, creating anti-US coalitions, etc. Not saying that punitive actions can’t be effective, but the US is still vulnerable to some forms of retaliation, especially if get initial action is as sudden and dramatic as the ones you describe.
- baybal2 5y ago
  > war, terrorism, cyber attacks, disinformation campaigns, corporate or political espionage, releasing state secrets, stoking geopolitical tensions, creating anti-US coalitions, etc. You just listed every thing what The New Axis has done in the previous decade.
peytn 5y ago
Saudi oil: nothing would happen. It’s a commodity. They’d sell their oil at market price minus epsilon. Regime would be fine. China tariff: they’d devalue the yuan. They already have capital controls that keep money from leaving the country. Regime would be fine. At the end of the day, might as well trade with them for our own benefit.
nyokodo 5y ago
> Would these regimes change their ways, or begin a major pivot away from America? Pivot to whom? China needs a large population of consumers. Besides the US they have their choice of countries full of young poor people, countries full of thrifty old people, and countries with consumers that are too small. They could drop the US if they’re willing to have a massive financial contraction. The US holds the ultimate trump card too, we need them less and less, and we can remove all shipping security guarantees for Chinese goods and watch their international trade collapse. It’s hard to fund influence campaigns when your economic house of cards crumbles around you.
- monocasa 5y ago
  The China envisioned in Made in China 2025 already has access to a large population of consumers: the Chinese population. And the whole point of the Belt and Road initiative and their aircraft carrier program is to remove dependence on the US backed shipping security apparatus.
  - nyokodo 5y ago
    > The China envisioned in Made in China 2025 already has access to a large population of consumers: the Chinese population. Not for long. The Chinese population is aging incredibly rapidly. Younger Chinese who could contribute to a stable consumer base will instead be crushed attempting to support the accelerating number in older generations retiring.
    - monocasa 5y ago
      Older Chinese are still consumers, they'll bog down younger Chinese no more than US consumers will. It's not like US consumers are providing anything other than capital and a market as it stands. And a transition to higher end products and associated manufacturing means less low end workers (and less workers overall) needed to make that happen.
      - nyokodo 5y ago

hulitu 5y ago

You no underestand. They are our friends.

corty 5y ago

Won't work, Afghanistan has no (legal) exports to speak of, and still there is the taliban gaining power. Iran and North Korea are hindered by very strict sanctions, yet their governments aren't any better. War might work, if at least some larger part of the population wants change, like in Iraq. Sanctions didn't ever work.

farseer 5y ago
Sanctions on Iraq did work, Saddam was contained. Might even have been swept away in the Arab spring later on. Unfortunately a bunch of religious fanatics invaded Iraq using a false pretense because God wanted them to. These fanatics didn't believe in diplomacy. After overthrowing the Taliban and the Baathists, they spurned all hopes of a negotiated peace and tried to wipe their foes off the map and remake the region in their own image. The defeated Baathist army was dismantled, the Taliban remnants hunted instead of negotiated with. Even the spurned Iraninans would have de-denuclearized out of fear in 2003 but why settle for that when you can have it all with regime change? And now here we are debating the evil of these once vanquished foes...
- corty 5y ago
  Saddam Hussein was contained regarding neighboring states. As to atrocities towards the Iraqi people, sanctions and loosing the wars just put those into full gear, because Hussein had to quell the brewing rebellion. So you are right, sanctions may work in preventing a war. But they do nothing beneficial for the internal workings of a country, like executing teens for protesting in the OP.

starik36 5y ago

> We buy and use their oil We actually buy a very small amount these days. US is a net exporter. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRIMUSSA2&f=M https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M...

sschueller 5y ago
It's not about the oil being purchased by the US but that most oil is traded in USD and not some other currency.
- nl 5y ago
  That seems an entirely different thing. Most international trade is denominated in USD, often even when trade is between two non-US companies.

nyokodo 5y ago

> We buy and use their oil Although that is true, the US imports less and less oil from Saudi. In fact, it’s been dropping steeply since shale oil became cheaper in 2014 and we haven’t imported less from Saudi since the oil glut of the mid-1980s.[1] I don’t think the US stopping Saudi oil imports is going to worry them as China is their major market now and China is another repressive regime. We should stop protecting their shipping though as we do for the entire globe still. 1: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRIMUSSA2&f=M https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M...

adaml_623 5y ago
How much oil does the US buy from Iran? I think actual embargoes make a difference.
- nyokodo 5y ago
  > How much oil does the US buy from Iran? I think actual embargoes make a difference. Iran is still a brutal repressive regime. Sanctions make it more difficult for Iran to gain and project power but don’t stop them from committing horrific crimes against minorities and generally innocent Iranians.
  - srean 5y ago
    > Iran is still a brutal repressive regime Whatever it is now, it has been brought in to existence by US (CIA) intervention
    - mc32 5y ago
      I think that’s simplistic. The CIA (not saying they did stand up things) tried the opposite and supported a failing regime that was more open but did little for the lower classes so the revolutionaries came in took over and showed the previous regime how to really be tyrannical. Most Iranians would depose the current leadership if they had free elections, so it’s not as if the population wants them, but like China, and North Korea only one party can have legitimate candidates and they have the guns.