4 ms·

> the Cascadia fault _will_ slip in the next 100 years (probably) and cause (probably) millions of deaths, and likely make living on the west coast untenable fo

> the Cascadia fault _will_ slip in the next 100 years (probably) and cause (probably) millions of deaths, and likely make living on the west coast untenable for some generations. That seems hyperbolic to me. The average interval for Cascade quakes has been 570-590 years. It has been 321 since the last. It could happen in the next 100, but it's a stretch to say that it probably will. I also think the 'millions of deaths' prediction is overstated by 2 to 3 orders of magnitude. And while a 9.x earthquake would be big, making it untenable to live on the west coast for generations is a pretty wild prediction.

XorNot 5y ago
A disease with an 0.001% base fatality rate has killed 500,000 people in the United States. It is optimistic to think a massive logistics disruption and severe infrastructure damage won't, without serious mitigation efforts.
- froh 5y ago
  someone with severe covid-19 will asphyxate no matter how much food and drinking water you have, and how many toilets you provide. apples to oranges.
- rootusrootus 5y ago
  The predictions I've seen by folks much more capable than me suggest a death toll in the 5-10K range for a magnitude 9 Cascadia quake. They also say we could lose 10-20% of all the structures. No doubt about it, this would be devastating. It would probably be decades before we fully rebuilt everything. But it certainly wouldn't make the west coast uninhabitable, thought it would likely make it very inconvenient for a few months at least.
bruce511 5y ago
Apologies, in the 100 year time scale I was referring to this [1] - but that is for a "big one (8.0-8.6)" not a "really big one (8.7-9.2)". The risk of a big one is 1 in 3 in the next 50 years, 1 in 10 for the really big one. So _likely_ 250 till the next big, big one. So who cares right? The very definition of "not my problem". On the up side (referring back to the top of this thread) ELE Asteroids are millions of years apart :) [1] https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big...)

XorNot 5y ago

A disease with an 0.001% base fatality rate has killed 500,000 people in the United States. It is optimistic to think a massive logistics disruption and severe infrastructure damage won't, without serious mitigation efforts.

froh 5y ago
someone with severe covid-19 will asphyxate no matter how much food and drinking water you have, and how many toilets you provide. apples to oranges.
rootusrootus 5y ago
The predictions I've seen by folks much more capable than me suggest a death toll in the 5-10K range for a magnitude 9 Cascadia quake. They also say we could lose 10-20% of all the structures. No doubt about it, this would be devastating. It would probably be decades before we fully rebuilt everything. But it certainly wouldn't make the west coast uninhabitable, thought it would likely make it very inconvenient for a few months at least.

bruce511 5y ago

Apologies, in the 100 year time scale I was referring to this [1] - but that is for a "big one (8.0-8.6)" not a "really big one (8.7-9.2)". The risk of a big one is 1 in 3 in the next 50 years, 1 in 10 for the really big one. So _likely_ 250 till the next big, big one. So who cares right? The very definition of "not my problem". On the up side (referring back to the top of this thread) ELE Asteroids are millions of years apart :) [1] https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big...)