I will note that if you tell people "The market of a thing essentially entirely controlled by human behavior will do X in response to highly predictable events,

I will note that if you tell people "The market of a thing essentially entirely controlled by human behavior will do X in response to highly predictable events, like new moons" is potentially self fulfilling prophecy. If large numbers of people believe that and act in response to that prediction, it can cause dips (or whatever). For that and other reasons, this really isn't HN worthy.