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I find the author slightly annoying insofar as they think you can study markets scientifically and thus applying astrology to market behavior is idiotic. For al
by dcow 5y ago
I find the author slightly annoying insofar as they think you can study markets scientifically and thus applying astrology to market behavior is idiotic. For all we know Elon times his tweets to key horoscope events and the market actually does invert every time mercury is in retrograde (which the data/history seem to support). If we were talking about trying build a bridge or something I’d be a lot more receptive to the idea that anything other than a rational approach is “stupid”.
- lern_too_spel 5y agoThe author's point seems to be that applying astrology to any decisions (not markets in particular) is stupid, speculating on crypto is stupid, and combining the two will give you an audience of especially stupid people who are willing to part with their money.
- dcow 5y agoMarkets are human things. If a non-zero subset of humans turn to astrology (as Maren's 1MM+ followers might suggest), even if only partially, when making any decision, wouldn't it be reasonable and quite rational to think that the market might actually move in relation to astrology events if enough of these "stupid" people are participating? Wouldn't that be the "smart" conclusion?
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- SahAssar 5y ago> For all we know Elon times his tweets to key horoscope events That does not make it any less or more wrong. If someone takes actions to make the stock market fit horoscopes that does not make the horoscopes better or worse at predicting those actions.
- DoreenMichele 5y agoActual serious students of astrology: "The stars incline; they do not compel" The rest of the world: "If you believe in astrology, you think you can know the future."
- jfengel 5y agoWhether they incline or compel, it would produce some measurable effect. It's easier to detect that effect if they compel, but even with an inclination, it's possible to demonstrate it statistically. Analogy: a weighted die doesn't always turn up 6. The weight inclines, but does not compel. Still, if you roll it a lot and take the average, you can tell that something is wrong if the average is something other than 3.5. As far as I have heard, studies have repeatedly demonstrated that the stars neither incline nor compel.
- DoreenMichele 5y agoI would be interested in seeing a list of studies you have read on the topic. Please and thank you.
- jfengel 5y agoThere is a Wikipedia page on the subject. It's heavily footnoted with links to the studies. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astrology_and_science https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astrology_and_science
- DoreenMichele 5y agoThank you.
- dcow 5y agoI would note that here we are talking about markets, not the types of things the linked article references as having been studied statistically. I don’t think anybody disagrees that there is absolutely zero scientific basis to astrology and its relevance in the physical world whatsoever. But that’s not the question. The question is whether an occult belief system can cause measurable effects in markets, which are not related in any way to the real world and purely derived from human sentiment.