A good start would be something like Probability Theory: the Logic of Science By E. T. Jaynes: http://www.med.mcgill.ca/epidemiology/hanley/bios601/GaussianMode

A good start would be something like Probability Theory: the Logic of Science By E. T. Jaynes: http://www.med.mcgill.ca/epidemiology/hanley/bios601/GaussianModel/JaynesProbabilityTheory.pdf http://www.med.mcgill.ca/epidemiology/hanley/bios601/Gaussia... Also, the difference between a bad method and a good method, is that the good method makes more accurate, better calibrated predictions (that is, using it makes us better gamblers).