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(With apologies to those that have heard it before) Bucky Fuller (an engineer) calculated that we would have by sometime in the 1970's all the technology necess

(With apologies to those that have heard it before) Bucky Fuller (an engineer) calculated that we would have by sometime in the 1970's all the technology necessary to create a kind of secular utopia if we applied our knowledge to solving our problems efficiently. We could each work for two years and then retire having paid for the rest of our lives during that two-year career. This happened more or less right on schedule (the technological advances, not the social/economic shift.) Ergo, our problems now are not physical, they are mental/emotional. The only thing holding us back is ourselves and our (regressive or at least complacent) attitudes and beliefs. - - - - As an aside, "But yet, one gets the sense that Pandora’s box has been opened." That's not the right metaphor. The box Pandora opened was filled with evil demons.

WalterBright 5y ago
There are a lot more people alive today than in the 1970s.
- carapace 5y ago
  True. So we work for three years, eh? More seriously, you're correct that population pressure is one of the main problems that could derail a techno-utopian scenario. Fortunately, population seems to be leveling off. I like to joke that the Amish are the "meek" who will "inherit the earth", as they are fantastic farmers and still have large families. But there's an element of truth to the joke: if most folks stop increasing their own population, but a few (like the Amish) don't, then in the fullness of time they would eventually, uh, overrun the rest of us regardless of any particular technological change.
handrous 5y ago
Aside from the usual hedonic treadmill explanation, a lot of our problems with ever-inflating costs are due to competition for limited goods—especially those conferring advantage to our kids. Houses in good school districts, private school slots, various expensive activities that make getting into top-tier colleges more likely, et c. Two-income households? Now you're richer? LOL no, just more money lost to zero-sum competition. Making retirement contributions voluntary? Oh great, now my competitors who choose not to save well can out-compete me for advantage for their children now, thanks a bunch. And so on.
- carapace 5y ago
  FWIW Bucky meant that we could eliminate poverty and starvation, not that we could supply unbounded luxuries. The rise of non-fungible tokens shows that folks will find ways to compete for limited resources, even if they have to dream them up.
- 3pt14159 5y ago
  Arms races, the growing search space for attack asymmetries, and the ever increasing mobility of capital paired with the inherent centralization of returns due to computing. Housing price inflation and advantages to children are examples of figurative arms races. And you're right, it's destroying our societies. Cyberwarfare and military buildups are actual arms races. Defence is getting more and more expensive. Globally, cybersecurity spending is going north of $1T, and I doubt it will ever decrease. What we have is a coordination or alignment problem. If we could get values aligned enough to coordinate more effectively we wouldn't have such an insane world. And as an aside, I highly doubt we'll be able to solve the alignment problem with AI. Either the AGI is going to want to coordinate due to its own character, or it won't, and short of putting it in some unobservable virtual machine and testing it to, say, see if it would give up its life for its friend; I don't know what else you could do to really know how deeply embedded its values are.
bob33212 5y ago
The ultimate question for humanity is what happens when we can fix this. It will first start with extreme mental issues ( addiction, the suicidal, the pedophiles). But eventually it gets to "Should children born with a desire to be the best at any cost be 'fixed' to remove that desire?" Are we still human when we remove the tribal and lizard brain desires that dominate human activity today?
_carbyau_ 5y ago
The only reason we're not all chilling out and relaxing is the "rat race". We're not competing with the animal kingdom anymore. We're competing with other humans. Good luck getting all humans to stop trying to dominate/outdo each other. It only takes one and the race is off again.

WalterBright 5y ago

There are a lot more people alive today than in the 1970s.

carapace 5y ago
True. So we work for three years, eh? More seriously, you're correct that population pressure is one of the main problems that could derail a techno-utopian scenario. Fortunately, population seems to be leveling off. I like to joke that the Amish are the "meek" who will "inherit the earth", as they are fantastic farmers and still have large families. But there's an element of truth to the joke: if most folks stop increasing their own population, but a few (like the Amish) don't, then in the fullness of time they would eventually, uh, overrun the rest of us regardless of any particular technological change.

handrous 5y ago

Aside from the usual hedonic treadmill explanation, a lot of our problems with ever-inflating costs are due to competition for limited goods—especially those conferring advantage to our kids. Houses in good school districts, private school slots, various expensive activities that make getting into top-tier colleges more likely, et c. Two-income households? Now you're richer? LOL no, just more money lost to zero-sum competition. Making retirement contributions voluntary? Oh great, now my competitors who choose not to save well can out-compete me for advantage for their children now, thanks a bunch. And so on.

carapace 5y ago
FWIW Bucky meant that we could eliminate poverty and starvation, not that we could supply unbounded luxuries. The rise of non-fungible tokens shows that folks will find ways to compete for limited resources, even if they have to dream them up.
3pt14159 5y ago
Arms races, the growing search space for attack asymmetries, and the ever increasing mobility of capital paired with the inherent centralization of returns due to computing. Housing price inflation and advantages to children are examples of figurative arms races. And you're right, it's destroying our societies. Cyberwarfare and military buildups are actual arms races. Defence is getting more and more expensive. Globally, cybersecurity spending is going north of $1T, and I doubt it will ever decrease. What we have is a coordination or alignment problem. If we could get values aligned enough to coordinate more effectively we wouldn't have such an insane world. And as an aside, I highly doubt we'll be able to solve the alignment problem with AI. Either the AGI is going to want to coordinate due to its own character, or it won't, and short of putting it in some unobservable virtual machine and testing it to, say, see if it would give up its life for its friend; I don't know what else you could do to really know how deeply embedded its values are.

bob33212 5y ago

The ultimate question for humanity is what happens when we can fix this. It will first start with extreme mental issues ( addiction, the suicidal, the pedophiles). But eventually it gets to "Should children born with a desire to be the best at any cost be 'fixed' to remove that desire?" Are we still human when we remove the tribal and lizard brain desires that dominate human activity today?

_carbyau_ 5y ago

The only reason we're not all chilling out and relaxing is the "rat race". We're not competing with the animal kingdom anymore. We're competing with other humans. Good luck getting all humans to stop trying to dominate/outdo each other. It only takes one and the race is off again.