4 ms·

One of the reasons the attempted drone assassination of Maduro in 2018 failed was because police were using radio jammers: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Ca

One of the reasons the attempted drone assassination of Maduro in 2018 failed was because police were using radio jammers: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Caracas_drone_attack https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Caracas_drone_attack It's fairly easy and cheap to make an explosive drone and train a neural network to drive it using off the shelf components and open source software. It follows that it's inevitable that at least semi-autonomous drones will be made to counter radio jamming. So while the best outcome a treaty could hope for is to prevent mass manufacturing these things by some countries, any motivated small country/individual will be able to craft them.

gonzo41 5y ago
Drones can't beat nylon nets or other low tech countermeasures. I think anti drone water cannons will outpace drone assassinations. And more than both, regular bombs and guns will still do most of the killing.
- gpm 5y ago
  A motorized sniper rifle with face detection to find targets and a high rate of fire seems like it could exist with current technology, require about the same effort to deploy as a sniper with a typical sniper rifle, require less training from the person in the field, and be a hell of a lot more deadly. Same with a machine gun for closer quarters. Regular bombs and guns probably still do most of the killing for quite awhile because of inertia, but I'm pretty firmly of the belief that they are outdated technology or will be soon, especially the regular guns part. Regular bombs are arguably already outdated by missiles with (frequently autonomous) guidance... but for a lot of applications dumb explosives do work pretty well so those probably stick around for a long time.
  - gonzo41 5y ago
    Sniping isn't that simple. The risk of counterfire is real. I think autonomous weapons will always be more successful in area denial and holding territory. Ie landmines.
    - gpm 5y ago
      The risk of counterfire is a lot smaller when the only thing to fire on is the few thousands of dollars worth of gun and electronics... and you could even armor it pretty effectively at the cost of mobility.
  - prussian 5y ago
    Hell you don't even need to go that high tech. Just make model jet aircraft cheaper, easier to handle, maybe even autonomous and I'd like to see those current anti-drone countermeasures stop it from zooming in and dropping whatever dumb payload someone could possibly want.
    - gpm 5y ago
      Honestly I feel like a model jet aircraft is a lot higher tech than my proposal :P But certainly lots of ways to make use of autonomy, and I'm no expert on the best way.
  - nonameiguess 5y ago
    While it isn't impossible in principle to make an aerial stabilized firing platform, I think you underestimate the difficulty. You definitely can't do it with a quadcopter, which doesn't have anywhere near the precision reaction capability to counteract rifle recoil. Even the most advanced fighter jets in existence right now can't do this. They need to use guide missiles for precision targeting. In practice, a drone swarm is an area weapon. It's why it's kamikaze and relies on explosives right now. It can say it has the ability to find a specific person using computer vision and maybe it can, but it definitely can't make sure it only kills that one person and it can't kill from a distance. No flying platform will be replacing snipers any time soon.
    - gpm 5y ago
      I'm not suggesting a flying platform... but a ground mounted one moved into place by a human.
    - bombcar 5y ago
      Do you even need to counter recoil if you only want to get off one shot?
      - leetcrew 5y ago
        newton's third law says yes, at least to some extent. unless the barrel is perfectly aligned with the platform's center of gravity, it will be deflected (at least a little) before the projectile exits. and it's not trivial to hold a quadcopter or fixed wing craft steady enough to aim precisely in the first place.
        jhgb 5y ago
        Do you need to aim steady or do you only need to fire precisely at the right moment? For example, TOWs using a top-attack EFP warhead don't "aim steady" either, they just detonate at the right moment.
        10000truths 5y ago
  - namlem 5y ago
    It's not that easy. A startup tried to build a smart gun with aim assist, but couldn't keep it calibrated for more than a couple shots and eventually went under.
- jhgb 5y ago
  Can't one drone destroy your nylon net for the rest of the drones to fly through it?

gonzo41 5y ago

Drones can't beat nylon nets or other low tech countermeasures. I think anti drone water cannons will outpace drone assassinations. And more than both, regular bombs and guns will still do most of the killing.

gpm 5y ago
A motorized sniper rifle with face detection to find targets and a high rate of fire seems like it could exist with current technology, require about the same effort to deploy as a sniper with a typical sniper rifle, require less training from the person in the field, and be a hell of a lot more deadly. Same with a machine gun for closer quarters. Regular bombs and guns probably still do most of the killing for quite awhile because of inertia, but I'm pretty firmly of the belief that they are outdated technology or will be soon, especially the regular guns part. Regular bombs are arguably already outdated by missiles with (frequently autonomous) guidance... but for a lot of applications dumb explosives do work pretty well so those probably stick around for a long time.
- gonzo41 5y ago
  Sniping isn't that simple. The risk of counterfire is real. I think autonomous weapons will always be more successful in area denial and holding territory. Ie landmines.
  - gpm 5y ago
    The risk of counterfire is a lot smaller when the only thing to fire on is the few thousands of dollars worth of gun and electronics... and you could even armor it pretty effectively at the cost of mobility.
- prussian 5y ago
  Hell you don't even need to go that high tech. Just make model jet aircraft cheaper, easier to handle, maybe even autonomous and I'd like to see those current anti-drone countermeasures stop it from zooming in and dropping whatever dumb payload someone could possibly want.
  - gpm 5y ago
    Honestly I feel like a model jet aircraft is a lot higher tech than my proposal :P But certainly lots of ways to make use of autonomy, and I'm no expert on the best way.
- nonameiguess 5y ago
  While it isn't impossible in principle to make an aerial stabilized firing platform, I think you underestimate the difficulty. You definitely can't do it with a quadcopter, which doesn't have anywhere near the precision reaction capability to counteract rifle recoil. Even the most advanced fighter jets in existence right now can't do this. They need to use guide missiles for precision targeting. In practice, a drone swarm is an area weapon. It's why it's kamikaze and relies on explosives right now. It can say it has the ability to find a specific person using computer vision and maybe it can, but it definitely can't make sure it only kills that one person and it can't kill from a distance. No flying platform will be replacing snipers any time soon.
  - gpm 5y ago
    I'm not suggesting a flying platform... but a ground mounted one moved into place by a human.
  - bombcar 5y ago
    Do you even need to counter recoil if you only want to get off one shot?
    - leetcrew 5y ago
      newton's third law says yes, at least to some extent. unless the barrel is perfectly aligned with the platform's center of gravity, it will be deflected (at least a little) before the projectile exits. and it's not trivial to hold a quadcopter or fixed wing craft steady enough to aim precisely in the first place.
      - jhgb 5y ago
        Do you need to aim steady or do you only need to fire precisely at the right moment? For example, TOWs using a top-attack EFP warhead don't "aim steady" either, they just detonate at the right moment.
        10000truths 5y ago
- namlem 5y ago
  It's not that easy. A startup tried to build a smart gun with aim assist, but couldn't keep it calibrated for more than a couple shots and eventually went under.
jhgb 5y ago
Can't one drone destroy your nylon net for the rest of the drones to fly through it?