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I'm personally not sure what's gonna happen. I don't foresee US economic growth rates of the past 40 years sustained for the next 40. We kicked the can down th
by rgifford 5y ago
I'm personally not sure what's gonna happen. I don't foresee US economic growth rates of the past 40 years sustained for the next 40.
We kicked the can down the road in 2008, 2012, 2014, sure. Anytime the S&P500 suffers we lower interest rates, open swap lines, buy corporate debt, and now we're talking about a 10T infrastructure program. Just take a sober look at US federal spending and entitlement programs. At what point is the US itself a bubble? Burry's answer: "When the degree to which we can tax our population eclipses the interest on our debt" [1].
It's not pessimism to tell someone they're standing under a massive, precariously placed boulder. Just because you like them, just because it's inconvenient, just because it's very rare people get hit by boulders -- it doesn't make the boulder go away. The boulder is current debt levels and it's just gotten bigger over the past 10 years.
1. https://youtu.be/pDXHMbnF1nw https://youtu.be/pDXHMbnF1nw