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As someone who returned from Shanghai in mid-November with a light cough that worsened into a diagnosed "upper-respiratory viral infection" for ~3 weeks of mise

As someone who returned from Shanghai in mid-November with a light cough that worsened into a diagnosed "upper-respiratory viral infection" for ~3 weeks of misery on the couch... I wish I could confirm one way or the other!

lamontcg 5y ago
You almost certainly didn't have it. In mid-November there could have only been cryptic spread around Wuhan. That means that maybe at the outside 3,000 people around Wuhan had the virus at that point (which I'm likely being generous with that number). Your chances of having contracted it in Shanghai is low. 3,000 people sounds like a lot but China has a population of 1.4 billion people. Your odds are 1-in-500,000 -- and they're much lower given the geographical separation from Wuhan to Shanghai. You had a cold which developed into bronchitis. Now if you told me it was mid-January and that you lost your sense of smell so completely that you couldn't smell food burning on the stove and when it came back meat taste rancid, I'd agree you probably had it.
- neffy 5y ago
  There is various evidence kicking around of cases in Wuhan back as far as September, so it's not entirely out of the frame.
  - lamontcg 5y ago
    No it pretty much is out of the frame. I'm allowing for 3,000 active cases in mid-November in Wuhan. It is expected that "patient zero" was closer to September, and I'm aware of the evidence from WHO and the genetic "dating" that leads to September/October timeframes for when it emerged. That still doesn't get it all over Shanghai by mid-November. And if there were more than 3,000 cases in mid-November the problem with the way the virus doubles every 3 days and kills about 1% (particularly before we knew anything about it) is that if you increase that number then you wind up with bodies stacking up way too high. And now if you assume that there was more than cryptic spread in literally a handful of people in Shanghai in mid-November then by mid-January it would have been slaughtering people in Shanghai in a way that couldn't have been hidden, and Shanghai would have looked like Wuhan wound up looking. And taking 3,000 active cases in Wuhan in mid-November you get 3,000,000 cases in mid-December after exponential growth, which is 35% of the population which is way over the 7% seroprevalence in April 2020. Once this virus really gets going it doesn't hide. It can only be around in a population for about 2 months before the bodies really stack up and you cannot miss it (it was probably around Wuhan a bit longer than 2 months without detection because the progenitor virus strain was less well adapted).
- derivagral 5y ago
  I appreciate the response and some of the numbers. That makes sense, and to back up your theory I can confirm that nobody around me got sick that I knew of. We did travel from Beijing but I don't think that's relevant given the rest of the post.
didibus 5y ago
I think you can take an antibody test, if you had Covid (and assuming you didn't get the Covid vaccine or real Covid later), you should show signs of antibodies.
- mardifoufs 5y ago
  Yes but even assuming he tests positive for antibodies , it is way more likely that it would be due to a more recent but completely asymptomatic infection rather than due to a very very early infection when the only few cases we know weren't even in the same region.
  - maxerickson 5y ago
    Yeah. Also, I've heard multiple anecdotes of people who had some nasty infection that winter and did get an antibody test that came back negative. Something else was going around.
    - acdha 5y ago
      Influenza was bad. My father in law had a bad case in February 2020, lab verified, and gave it to us. Even with the flu vaccine it was notably worse than anything we had with a kid in daycare.
  - didibus 5y ago
    True, but at least if they test negative they know for sure it was something else.

lamontcg 5y ago

You almost certainly didn't have it. In mid-November there could have only been cryptic spread around Wuhan. That means that maybe at the outside 3,000 people around Wuhan had the virus at that point (which I'm likely being generous with that number). Your chances of having contracted it in Shanghai is low. 3,000 people sounds like a lot but China has a population of 1.4 billion people. Your odds are 1-in-500,000 -- and they're much lower given the geographical separation from Wuhan to Shanghai. You had a cold which developed into bronchitis. Now if you told me it was mid-January and that you lost your sense of smell so completely that you couldn't smell food burning on the stove and when it came back meat taste rancid, I'd agree you probably had it.

neffy 5y ago
There is various evidence kicking around of cases in Wuhan back as far as September, so it's not entirely out of the frame.
- lamontcg 5y ago
  No it pretty much is out of the frame. I'm allowing for 3,000 active cases in mid-November in Wuhan. It is expected that "patient zero" was closer to September, and I'm aware of the evidence from WHO and the genetic "dating" that leads to September/October timeframes for when it emerged. That still doesn't get it all over Shanghai by mid-November. And if there were more than 3,000 cases in mid-November the problem with the way the virus doubles every 3 days and kills about 1% (particularly before we knew anything about it) is that if you increase that number then you wind up with bodies stacking up way too high. And now if you assume that there was more than cryptic spread in literally a handful of people in Shanghai in mid-November then by mid-January it would have been slaughtering people in Shanghai in a way that couldn't have been hidden, and Shanghai would have looked like Wuhan wound up looking. And taking 3,000 active cases in Wuhan in mid-November you get 3,000,000 cases in mid-December after exponential growth, which is 35% of the population which is way over the 7% seroprevalence in April 2020. Once this virus really gets going it doesn't hide. It can only be around in a population for about 2 months before the bodies really stack up and you cannot miss it (it was probably around Wuhan a bit longer than 2 months without detection because the progenitor virus strain was less well adapted).
derivagral 5y ago
I appreciate the response and some of the numbers. That makes sense, and to back up your theory I can confirm that nobody around me got sick that I knew of. We did travel from Beijing but I don't think that's relevant given the rest of the post.

didibus 5y ago

I think you can take an antibody test, if you had Covid (and assuming you didn't get the Covid vaccine or real Covid later), you should show signs of antibodies.

mardifoufs 5y ago
Yes but even assuming he tests positive for antibodies , it is way more likely that it would be due to a more recent but completely asymptomatic infection rather than due to a very very early infection when the only few cases we know weren't even in the same region.
- maxerickson 5y ago
  Yeah. Also, I've heard multiple anecdotes of people who had some nasty infection that winter and did get an antibody test that came back negative. Something else was going around.
  - acdha 5y ago
    Influenza was bad. My father in law had a bad case in February 2020, lab verified, and gave it to us. Even with the flu vaccine it was notably worse than anything we had with a kid in daycare.
- didibus 5y ago
  True, but at least if they test negative they know for sure it was something else.