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There is a more timeless valuation metric that looks at asset valuations in reference to treasury yields. And it is helpful to look at treasury yields as a ref
by vmception 5y ago
There is a more timeless valuation metric that looks at asset valuations in reference to treasury yields.
And it is helpful to look at treasury yields as a reference to how much money is in the system that needs to be placed. The entire incentive is to find an investment that earns money faster than the value of your money drops due to treasury & central bank activity.
(The actions of issuing governments and central banks are the primary way more money gets into the economy than before, and this pushes down interest rates.)
TINA - "There is no alternative" has been used over the last decade to suggest a problem: that there is no where else for investors to park money so they stretch valuations poorly.
But "TINA" has always been the case, to a degree which has only been limited by geopolitics and fragmented economies in the past.
Valuations have always been tied to how much money is in the system.
So - yes - the capital formation and placement process is messy and there is wild short lived inefficiencies in some parts of the market such as a single collectibles market attracting too much capital or a single stock becoming a crowded trade. But across the entire asset classes bubbles might not necessarily be bubbles.
- AnimalMuppet 5y agoI think I agree with that "more timeless valuation metric". Would you mind sharing what it is saying about current conditions?
- vmception 5y agoI havent checked how close/far to the correlations we are right now, but the main point is that its not useful to use some P/E ratio* from the 1980s to decide if a particular company or sector is overvalued or not. It would basically be P/E/Money Supply instead *or revenue multiple, general valuation, etc