6 ms·
You can estimate the date of the outbreak's origin with phylodynamics, using the diversity of circulating SARS-CoV-2 and its mutation rate to estimate the time
by mmmrtl 5y ago
You can estimate the date of the outbreak's origin with phylodynamics, using the diversity of circulating SARS-CoV-2 and its mutation rate to estimate the time to most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) as 27.11.2019 [CI 07.11.2019 - 11.12.2019]. "Considerably earlier" doesn't fit the evidence
https://virological.org/t/update-2-evolutionary-epidemiological-analysis-of-128-genomes/423 https://virological.org/t/update-2-evolutionary-epidemiologi...
- throwaway4good 5y agoIt could have been spreading somewhere else, undetected or mistaken for something else.
- qwerty1234599 5y agoIt's possible that a mutation emerged in november 2019 that pushed the R number up. A "mild" form of the virus could very easily have lingered in China/SEA for years.
- sudosysgen 5y agoDefinitely, especially if the virus was a zoonotic leak and was poorly adapted to humans, perhaps with R only slightly above 1 until it adapted.