I would tell them the truth that they are more likely to get stuck close to where they are. That could be more motivating than selling them a fairy tale and wat

I would tell them the truth that they are more likely to get stuck close to where they are. That could be more motivating than selling them a fairy tale and watch them screw up their 1 or 2 shots that they might afford. If you say upfront that the odds are against you, then I think it can spark more conscious decisions.