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> if any complex enough system is long-term commercially viable I don't think you can determine this from first principles without taking the wider world into
by WJW 5y ago
> if any complex enough system is long-term commercially viable
I don't think you can determine this from first principles without taking the wider world into account. Things like the electricity grid or car manufacturing seem to have managed just fine over long periods of time, despite (almost) nobody having their own coal power plant or cylinder boring machinery. There are some niches in software that will survive just fine even as closed source software, SAP, Salesforce and industrial control systems spring to mind.
- bryanrasmussen 5y ago>electricity grid or car manufacturing electricity grid became a commodity (I believe arguably car manufacturing did as well), not sure if the theory isn't that any system that lasts over the long term will either become commoditised or cease to be commercially viable.
- pjc50 5y agoElectricity feels like a commodity (although unlike the other commodity markets there's almost no "carry trade", nobody talks about contango power). The electric grid is a utility; on of those things that's either a state monopoly or a state-shielded private-ish company, because there can't be competing electric grids. Grid equipment itself is manufactured by unglamourous heavy engineering firms like Siemens or ABB.