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>When we need is more efficient and less expensive cars and better driver training programs. I bet human drivers are already mostly safe - I think most acciden
by nemothekid 5y ago
>When we need is more efficient and less expensive cars and better driver training programs.
I bet human drivers are already mostly safe - I think most accidents are broadly in 3 categories, (1) impairment (drinking, age, sleep) or (2) distraction (cell phone, makeup) or (3) weather. The first two wont be solved by better training programs and the last would be really hard to make a requirement (how do you train people to drive in the snow in Los Angeles)?. If you want safer roads, it would be more wise to spend that money on public transportation. On a per capita basis it would be cheaper and safer.
That said I don't think the rush to autonomous driving is as altruistic as the developers claim. For $250B you could massively overhaul the transportation systems for major cities. However there is little upside to capture by doing do; while autonomous driving has the potential to create a last-mile autonomous transportation system that would massively reduce the costs of transporting goods and people (by removing labor costs). Capturing that upside is far more lucrative.
I think the question is less "we will only see AV commonplace when it's unilaterally safer than humans", and more "we will see AV commonplace when the value generated exceeds the potential costs of fatal accidents". It's after AV is commonplace will the value captured from human drivers be used to reduce costs in the failures of AV. For example, if UPS were to convert their 50% fleet to AV, then they would use the money saved to then invest in V2V or I2V infrastructure in order to accelerate the transition of the rest of their fleet.
- mjburgess 5y agoHuman death rate is 1 in 100 mil. miles driven (all conditions) iirc, AD rate is 1 in 1mil (ideal conditions).
- kmonsen 5y agoWhat we “need” is hard to say, but what we will get is what will sell more cars. Maybe those two align, but there might not beer a strong connection between them. For example ambient lighting inside the car is largely a gimmick, but a fun one. Clearly not something benefiting society, but it seems to sell cars.
- donkeyd 5y agoI see you're looking at this mostly from a business value perspective and I guess in the end that's what it all comes down to, but I feel there is so much more value added than just "less drivers needed." The cost of I2V for example can be offset by less waste in both space used to park cars, drive cars and maintain cars. You can utilize roads much better by having a lot of tiny single passenger vehicles that park themselves outside of the city when traffic is low. Also, travel time with public transportation is always longer than point-to-point, so people save time over that. There's too much for a HN comment that I can think of as benefits of AV.
- bzzzt 5y agoSince you're allowed to drive in the snow when you have a driver's license it should be part of the training. You can get skid training courses where a slippery road is 'simulated' on a wet plate which should be possible in LA ;) Also, aren't steep fines a good "training program" for distractions like holding your phone and messaging when driving?
- kristiandupont 5y ago>You can get skid training courses where a slippery road is 'simulated' on a wet plate This is mandatory in Denmark. Most fun part of getting the license!
- dagw 5y agoIt was also the most illuminating and educational part. Doing the same maneuver at 50, 60 and 70 km/h clearly demonstrated how small the margins between easily avoiding an accident and ending up upside down in a ditch can be.
- dagw 5y agohow do you train people to drive in the snow in Los Angeles The same way you train people to drive in the snow in Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark etc. the 8-11 month of the year there is no snow on the ground.
- nemothekid 5y agoI think most of the replies are tunnel-visioning on the snow-in-la-aspect. Even if you do start training people to start drive well in the snow, I don't think that will meaningfully reduce accidents, at least in LA. Especially when you consider DUIs and texting-and-driving contributes way more to accidents in LA.
- dagw 5y agoLearning to drive in 'snow' has mostly been useful to me when driving in mud or very wet roads. But mostly seeing first hand how small the margins between total control and complete loss of control are has led to me driving far more defensively on wet roads. Just experiencing that feeling of sitting in a car that is spinning off doing its own thing and completely ignoring your feeble attempts at breaking and steering is illuminating.