4 ms·

Instead of arguing that it makes sense to invest 1% in every investment, what if the argument is that it makes sense to invest 1% in every investment that has o

by lowkey 5y ago

Instead of arguing that it makes sense to invest 1% in every investment, what if the argument is that it makes sense to invest 1% in every investment that has outperformed every other investment class over the past 12 years of its existence? Historic performance isn’t the only indicator to consider but it is notable. Given that you have been wrong about it’s performance so consistently would you consider checking your assumptions?

arcticbull 5y ago
> ... outperformed every other investment class over the past 12 years of its existence? Because past performance isn't indicative of future performance. The XLF has dramatically outperformed Bitcoin in the last few months hasn't it? Really puts a damper on the "long bitcoin short banks" narrative. > Given that you have been wrong about it’s performance so consistently would you consider checking your assumptions? Who says I've been wrong about its performance? I'm saying it's driven by fraud and manipulation. Frauds go up until they don't. I'm not confident in catching the top before the music stops. I don't think I've ever said the price is guaranteed to go down on any particular time horizon.
- lowkey 5y ago
  I’ll concede that if you are certain Bitcoin or Tether is a fraud that will likely blow up at any time, then no you shouldn’t put any allocation into Bitcoin. I obviously don’t agree with your assessment but I am intellectually curious enough to want to understand where this conviction comes from. Edited: to add Tether fraud risk, as I misinterpreted OPs comment to be about Bitcoin when it was actually about Tether.
  - arcticbull 5y ago
    I don't think Bitcoin is a fraud, after all 1BTC=1BTC. However, its price in USD is largely fictitious. 95% of all Bitcoin trading volume is fake according to Bitwise. [1] Trading BTC is almost exclusively conducted not against USD but against USDT, on the order of 80%. [2] Tether is by their own admission (or I should say pie chart) 3% backed by USD. [3] That 65% "commercial paper" would make them the second largest global holder of commercial paper after JP Morgan, but nobody on Wall Street has heard of them. By their own terms of service, they never have to redeem a single one for USD, on any timeline - not for you, not for anyone else - and even if they chose to out of good will, they could redeem it for any "backing" they so choose. [4] Tether is, by and large, a fraudulent enterprise. [5] So, my conviction is based on the idea that if $60B worth of dollars (not market cap, dollars) and 80% of trading volume against BTC is these chuck-e-cheese tokens - and they were to suddenly disintegrate, that yes, the market price would utterly collapse. There are no good players in this space. Even Coinbase, widely regarded as the "best" of the exchanges, had to settle with the CFTC because at one point they allowed 99% of the entire Litecoin trading pair (globally) to exist as wash trading between two bots at Coinbase HQ. [6] That's the best of the best. tl;dr: The market is overwhelmingly manipulated, wash traded, spoofed, and trading is conducted in a currency that's backed by chewing gum and baling twine. [1] https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitwise-calls-out-to-sec-95-of-bitcoin-trade-volume-is-fake-real-market-is-or https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitwise-calls-out-to-sec-95-o... [2] https://coinlib.io/coin/BTC/Bitcoin https://coinlib.io/coin/BTC/Bitcoin [3] https://davidgerard.co.uk/blockchain/2021/05/13/tether-publishes-two-pie-charts-of-its-reserves/ https://davidgerard.co.uk/blockchain/2021/05/13/tether-publi... [4] https://tether.to/legal/ https://tether.to/legal/ section (3) [5] https://ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/2021.02.17_-_settlement_agreement_-_execution_version.b-t_signed-c2_oag_signed.pdf https://ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/2021.02.17_-_settlemen... [6] https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8369-21 https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8369-21
    - lowkey 5y ago
      I see your point and have edited my previous comment to reflect that it is Tether fraud risk that was your concern, not Bitcoin per se. I thank you for the links. I will look into them further.
      - arcticbull 5y ago
        btw, I think it's important to say I could be totally wrong on what - if any - impact this would have on the price in the future. I'm speculating; this is my thesis for not investing, but everyone has to of course make up their own minds.
rualca 5y ago
> (...) what if the argument is that it makes sense to invest 1% in every investment that has outperformed every other investment class over the past 12 years of its existence? Pray tell, how do you explain thaf fantastic performance of Bitcoin to those who bought in while it was at 54k and right now they look at the market and see btc at around 30k? How does losing half the value fare against any conservative investment strategy?
- lowkey 5y ago
  We remind them that Bitcoin is volatile in the short term and then we ask them to zoom out. We remind them how many times Bitcoin has been declared dead before. We remind them that that anyone who has held Bitcoin as a long term investment has made money. Even today after the recent dip anyone who held for 12 months is up 300% y/y. If in doubt zoom out.

by lowkey 5y ago

arcticbull 5y ago

> ... outperformed every other investment class over the past 12 years of its existence? Because past performance isn't indicative of future performance. The XLF has dramatically outperformed Bitcoin in the last few months hasn't it? Really puts a damper on the "long bitcoin short banks" narrative. > Given that you have been wrong about it’s performance so consistently would you consider checking your assumptions? Who says I've been wrong about its performance? I'm saying it's driven by fraud and manipulation. Frauds go up until they don't. I'm not confident in catching the top before the music stops. I don't think I've ever said the price is guaranteed to go down on any particular time horizon.

lowkey 5y ago
I’ll concede that if you are certain Bitcoin or Tether is a fraud that will likely blow up at any time, then no you shouldn’t put any allocation into Bitcoin. I obviously don’t agree with your assessment but I am intellectually curious enough to want to understand where this conviction comes from. Edited: to add Tether fraud risk, as I misinterpreted OPs comment to be about Bitcoin when it was actually about Tether.
- arcticbull 5y ago
  I don't think Bitcoin is a fraud, after all 1BTC=1BTC. However, its price in USD is largely fictitious. 95% of all Bitcoin trading volume is fake according to Bitwise. [1] Trading BTC is almost exclusively conducted not against USD but against USDT, on the order of 80%. [2] Tether is by their own admission (or I should say pie chart) 3% backed by USD. [3] That 65% "commercial paper" would make them the second largest global holder of commercial paper after JP Morgan, but nobody on Wall Street has heard of them. By their own terms of service, they never have to redeem a single one for USD, on any timeline - not for you, not for anyone else - and even if they chose to out of good will, they could redeem it for any "backing" they so choose. [4] Tether is, by and large, a fraudulent enterprise. [5] So, my conviction is based on the idea that if $60B worth of dollars (not market cap, dollars) and 80% of trading volume against BTC is these chuck-e-cheese tokens - and they were to suddenly disintegrate, that yes, the market price would utterly collapse. There are no good players in this space. Even Coinbase, widely regarded as the "best" of the exchanges, had to settle with the CFTC because at one point they allowed 99% of the entire Litecoin trading pair (globally) to exist as wash trading between two bots at Coinbase HQ. [6] That's the best of the best. tl;dr: The market is overwhelmingly manipulated, wash traded, spoofed, and trading is conducted in a currency that's backed by chewing gum and baling twine. [1] https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitwise-calls-out-to-sec-95-of-bitcoin-trade-volume-is-fake-real-market-is-or https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitwise-calls-out-to-sec-95-o... [2] https://coinlib.io/coin/BTC/Bitcoin https://coinlib.io/coin/BTC/Bitcoin [3] https://davidgerard.co.uk/blockchain/2021/05/13/tether-publishes-two-pie-charts-of-its-reserves/ https://davidgerard.co.uk/blockchain/2021/05/13/tether-publi... [4] https://tether.to/legal/ https://tether.to/legal/ section (3) [5] https://ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/2021.02.17_-_settlement_agreement_-_execution_version.b-t_signed-c2_oag_signed.pdf https://ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/2021.02.17_-_settlemen... [6] https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8369-21 https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8369-21
  - lowkey 5y ago
    I see your point and have edited my previous comment to reflect that it is Tether fraud risk that was your concern, not Bitcoin per se. I thank you for the links. I will look into them further.
    - arcticbull 5y ago
      btw, I think it's important to say I could be totally wrong on what - if any - impact this would have on the price in the future. I'm speculating; this is my thesis for not investing, but everyone has to of course make up their own minds.

rualca 5y ago

> (...) what if the argument is that it makes sense to invest 1% in every investment that has outperformed every other investment class over the past 12 years of its existence? Pray tell, how do you explain thaf fantastic performance of Bitcoin to those who bought in while it was at 54k and right now they look at the market and see btc at around 30k? How does losing half the value fare against any conservative investment strategy?

lowkey 5y ago
We remind them that Bitcoin is volatile in the short term and then we ask them to zoom out. We remind them how many times Bitcoin has been declared dead before. We remind them that that anyone who has held Bitcoin as a long term investment has made money. Even today after the recent dip anyone who held for 12 months is up 300% y/y. If in doubt zoom out.