3 ms·

Where are you seeing the "high levels of production?" The attached article seems to say just the opposite.

cptskippy 5y ago
It just says they ramped down production in anticipation of decline due to the pandemic. The article then discusses the challenge of expanding or opening a saw mill. You don't talk about expansion if you're running below peak capacity.
- mikhailt 5y ago
  https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/wood-production-hits-13-year-high%E2%80%94but-lumber-prices-are-still-up-171percent-since-covid-started/ar-BB1fagN3 https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/wood-production-hits... They talk about opening new sawmills because a huge number of them went out of business since the last great recession. It's a supply/demand issue and the production relative to COVID or last recession hasn't recovered.
- abakker 5y ago
  This is a highly complex problem. One reason to run below capacity is that many of the trees that have grown in the souther US were left standing to grow longer during persuades of low demand in the last decade. Now that there is high demand it has become apparent that not many sawmills in the south of the UD have the capacity to saw larger trees, and many of the bigger mills that can are in Canada which is being impacted by tariffs that make shipping them back and forth not so economic.
adam_arthur 5y ago
Lumber production at all time high, as easily found in many articles. It's called demand pull inflation. Suddenly populace has many more dollars, and thus can buy out supply of whatever... In this case, new housing stock. Or it could be driven simply by changes in preferences... The exact breakdown can't be known. Whether it persists or not is the important question. https://www.google.com/amp/s/fortune.com/2021/06/10/lumber-prices-2021-chart-price-of-lumber-production-wood-supply-costs-update-june/amp/ https://www.google.com/amp/s/fortune.com/2021/06/10/lumber-p... A lot of people handwave away shortages as a supply side issue, but an increase in demand leading to a shortage is not supply side at all. The distinction is subtle but important.

It just says they ramped down production in anticipation of decline due to the pandemic. The article then discusses the challenge of expanding or opening a saw mill. You don't talk about expansion if you're running below peak capacity.

mikhailt 5y ago
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/wood-production-hits-13-year-high%E2%80%94but-lumber-prices-are-still-up-171percent-since-covid-started/ar-BB1fagN3 https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/wood-production-hits... They talk about opening new sawmills because a huge number of them went out of business since the last great recession. It's a supply/demand issue and the production relative to COVID or last recession hasn't recovered.
abakker 5y ago
This is a highly complex problem. One reason to run below capacity is that many of the trees that have grown in the souther US were left standing to grow longer during persuades of low demand in the last decade. Now that there is high demand it has become apparent that not many sawmills in the south of the UD have the capacity to saw larger trees, and many of the bigger mills that can are in Canada which is being impacted by tariffs that make shipping them back and forth not so economic.

adam_arthur 5y ago

Lumber production at all time high, as easily found in many articles. It's called demand pull inflation. Suddenly populace has many more dollars, and thus can buy out supply of whatever... In this case, new housing stock. Or it could be driven simply by changes in preferences... The exact breakdown can't be known. Whether it persists or not is the important question. https://www.google.com/amp/s/fortune.com/2021/06/10/lumber-prices-2021-chart-price-of-lumber-production-wood-supply-costs-update-june/amp/ https://www.google.com/amp/s/fortune.com/2021/06/10/lumber-p... A lot of people handwave away shortages as a supply side issue, but an increase in demand leading to a shortage is not supply side at all. The distinction is subtle but important.