5 ms·

The whole country was much more dangerous in the 70s-80s than it was in the 2000s. https://www.statista.com/statistics/187592/death-rate-from-homicide-in-the-us

The whole country was much more dangerous in the 70s-80s than it was in the 2000s. https://www.statista.com/statistics/187592/death-rate-from-homicide-in-the-us-since-1950/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/187592/death-rate-from-h... NYC's peak-to-trough was bigger than the rest of the country, but it's not obvious that Giuliani was the cause, as opposed to a general trend having a more pronounced effect in the city (possibly because whatever malaise was causing the murders was more concentrated in the city). This is consistent with e.g. the lead-crime hypothesis, but there are a number of other ways that might explain the amplification of crime in the city. Edit: Although, upon looking at this more, in NYC the decline was really pronounced at the beginning of Giuliani's tenure. I am politically predisposed to discredit Giuliani because of his more recent antics, but it's also true that bad people can sometimes accomplish good things. I looked for evidence on this topic and it does seem that the increased enforcement of crimes during Giuliani's mayorship probably had some significant effects on crime. I regret the implication that it did not, since it seems I was likely incorrect.

gogopuppygogo 5y ago
I’ve read the decline in crime and overall improvements in society being safer is a direct result of the reduction in lead exposure: https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-27067615 https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-27067615
- steveBK123 5y ago
  Most studies show at best it was a 33% contributor.
burlesona 5y ago
I know nothing about the NYC / Giuliani subject so no comment on that part. But I wanted to say I really appreciate your edit. I admire your willingness to check your own bias and then consider the possibility that it misled you.
- asdfasgasdgasdg 5y ago
  Thank you for saying so. I was actually banned/rate-limited from this site for being a little too ideological a few years ago and after thinking about the types of comments I was writing I decided to try to change my ways -- and not just here. I'm trying to let myself be led by curiosity rather than indignation or pride when it comes to the news and big issues. I recommend it -- it's actually helped me remove the contention in some personal relationships, in addition to IMO making me a better contributor to internet communities I'm in.
  - mycologos 5y ago
    Boy, if ever there was a redemption story tailored to appeal to an HN audience, this might be it (it worked on me, at least).
  - padastra 5y ago
    Just FYI, like most studies of behaviors and their causes in large populations, the hypothesis that lead exposure resulted in more crime is not proven, see e.g.: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5801257/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5801257/ My priors (from a Bayesian perspective) that lead, which in high doses provably can result in brain damage, can have more subtle effects on behavioral inhibition and executive function is pretty high, but I still do not know that I would feel confident saying the evidence is clear.
    - asdfasgasdgasdg 5y ago
      I affirm that the hypothesis is not solidly proven at this point. Although I also wonder what else could explain the widespread fall in criminality. Is it possible that the 90s was just the point where we reached economic sufficiency for a large swathe of people who would otherwise have been criminals to attain more? Maybe violent video games have diverted the little criminal in many of us (I jest but I have heard this idea floated in some places)? Did people switch to drugs that were less likely to cause criminal behavior? It would be nice to have an answer but I suspect that we will never have more than questions and conjectures on this one.
pbourke 5y ago
> The whole country was much more dangerous in the 70s-80s than it was in the 2000s. Was that an overall trend in that rural and suburban areas were equally more dangerous, or was it concentrated in cities?
stevenicr 5y ago
netflix has 'fear city' and one of the 'trial by media' episodes that give a decent glimpse of things around the time there.. and it shows a very different Giuliani than most people today would think of outside NY I think. I am not an expert - and would love to learn more - but during those times I think there was crime across the country - but in most places it was pockets of crime, mostly separated from the day to day average citizens.. it seems to me that NY at the time, the average citizen had to be on guard and knew they were a few bodies away from being the day's victim.. I feel that much of the rest of the country had crime in certain areas, but certainly not a normal experience on the subway of va/dc/md for example - of course you could wander into areas where the daily normal was different. So stats could say 'it was just NY but everywhere else..' - but I'm not sure stats show enough by where/when to show a better picture of '90% daily commuters experience violence themselves or witness it near' in X-city overall - or is it 30% or commuters, mostly from / in neighborhood Y or Z - but most people in city V don't see in person and aren't constantly worried. If there are stats showing those kinds of things I'd love to learn more - and see what percentage of the country felt the way subway riders in NY felt in the 80s, and how localized or not those things were. I'd guess that the density of NY meant the violence affected more people because more people were nearby to witness it - as opposed to most other places. random thoughts.

gogopuppygogo 5y ago

I’ve read the decline in crime and overall improvements in society being safer is a direct result of the reduction in lead exposure: https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-27067615 https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-27067615

steveBK123 5y ago
Most studies show at best it was a 33% contributor.

burlesona 5y ago

I know nothing about the NYC / Giuliani subject so no comment on that part. But I wanted to say I really appreciate your edit. I admire your willingness to check your own bias and then consider the possibility that it misled you.

asdfasgasdgasdg 5y ago
Thank you for saying so. I was actually banned/rate-limited from this site for being a little too ideological a few years ago and after thinking about the types of comments I was writing I decided to try to change my ways -- and not just here. I'm trying to let myself be led by curiosity rather than indignation or pride when it comes to the news and big issues. I recommend it -- it's actually helped me remove the contention in some personal relationships, in addition to IMO making me a better contributor to internet communities I'm in.
- mycologos 5y ago
  Boy, if ever there was a redemption story tailored to appeal to an HN audience, this might be it (it worked on me, at least).
- padastra 5y ago
  Just FYI, like most studies of behaviors and their causes in large populations, the hypothesis that lead exposure resulted in more crime is not proven, see e.g.: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5801257/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5801257/ My priors (from a Bayesian perspective) that lead, which in high doses provably can result in brain damage, can have more subtle effects on behavioral inhibition and executive function is pretty high, but I still do not know that I would feel confident saying the evidence is clear.
  - asdfasgasdgasdg 5y ago
    I affirm that the hypothesis is not solidly proven at this point. Although I also wonder what else could explain the widespread fall in criminality. Is it possible that the 90s was just the point where we reached economic sufficiency for a large swathe of people who would otherwise have been criminals to attain more? Maybe violent video games have diverted the little criminal in many of us (I jest but I have heard this idea floated in some places)? Did people switch to drugs that were less likely to cause criminal behavior? It would be nice to have an answer but I suspect that we will never have more than questions and conjectures on this one.

pbourke 5y ago

> The whole country was much more dangerous in the 70s-80s than it was in the 2000s. Was that an overall trend in that rural and suburban areas were equally more dangerous, or was it concentrated in cities?

stevenicr 5y ago

netflix has 'fear city' and one of the 'trial by media' episodes that give a decent glimpse of things around the time there.. and it shows a very different Giuliani than most people today would think of outside NY I think. I am not an expert - and would love to learn more - but during those times I think there was crime across the country - but in most places it was pockets of crime, mostly separated from the day to day average citizens.. it seems to me that NY at the time, the average citizen had to be on guard and knew they were a few bodies away from being the day's victim.. I feel that much of the rest of the country had crime in certain areas, but certainly not a normal experience on the subway of va/dc/md for example - of course you could wander into areas where the daily normal was different. So stats could say 'it was just NY but everywhere else..' - but I'm not sure stats show enough by where/when to show a better picture of '90% daily commuters experience violence themselves or witness it near' in X-city overall - or is it 30% or commuters, mostly from / in neighborhood Y or Z - but most people in city V don't see in person and aren't constantly worried. If there are stats showing those kinds of things I'd love to learn more - and see what percentage of the country felt the way subway riders in NY felt in the 80s, and how localized or not those things were. I'd guess that the density of NY meant the violence affected more people because more people were nearby to witness it - as opposed to most other places. random thoughts.