You are doing risk management wrong. To launch a business without determining what a reasonable (or rather, survivale) concept of success would be, without exam

You are doing risk management wrong. To launch a business without determining what a reasonable (or rather, survivale) concept of success would be, without examining your environment to give you at least an order-of-magnitude conception of your the frequency of return on investment you can expect, and determining whether your business model can survive long enough to be self-perpetuating isn't foolhardy: it's stupid. It doesn't take rocket science skill to be realistic, and to anticipate known unknowns. You don't even need the complicated parts of excel.